QLD - SHOWERS CLEARING INLAND TONGIHT, BACK MOST OF THIS WEEK AND MORE EXTENSIVE IN THE SOUTH.

The north will be mostly dry and hot with increasing humidity values as you get to the Gulf Country with an east to northeast wind. For the central and southern areas, increasing mid and upper level instability will kick off showers and thunderstorms once again in random and scattered pockets tomorrow afternoon, and these will extend further south into NSW later.


The coast will see showers about, again no wash outs, but the onshore winds dragging in moisture off the easterly winds and pumping this through the southern and central inland, feeding the inland trough, giving rise to the daily afternoon thunderstorm potential.


Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The rainfall is largely confined to the southern and central areas initially along the trough, but with persistent easterly winds about, the shower coverage along the coast may increase at times this week, with moderate falls possible. As the trough begins to move out of SA through NSW and approaches later this week, the thunderstorm coverage will begin to increase further and there is the risk of severe weather at this stage. The storms clear this weekend with showers ongoing for the coast and over the tropics as the seasonal shift continues.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening, a bit like today, the storms scattered and random and no one can tell you ahead of time where these will form, but know that if you are in the region shaded they could be about. The storm coverage may continue overnight into Tuesday and extend through remaining central and northern parts during the week. Storms on Monday may produce strong gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Pressure pattern is largely unchanged from this morning and indeed from our last major update yesterday. The weather is largely dominated by areas of low pressure and copious moisture returning via easterly winds over eastern Australia and the Indian Ocean with the west coast trough. This likely to converge over the eastern and southern inland of Australia for the best part of this week. Another system is likely to move in from the west of the nation later this week and this sweep into SA and then the eastern states later in the period. Up north it is becoming unsettled with the traditional shift towards the wet season and build up conditions. This will likely be the best opportunity for rainfall for many areas in some cases for months.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

You can see the moisture move back through the nation bringing up rainfall chances from tomorrow and really right through the coming 2 weeks. Needless to say, marrying this parameter with the pressure pattern, we have three major events on the board if you look off the GFS (refer to the video) and two events on the Euro which carry a higher degree of confidence in the shorter term.

The moisture converges over the east with widespread rainfall developing this week. Can see the moisture streaming out of the east and then merging with moisture out of the west. Some of this will come back over southern areas of the state later this week with the trough passing by.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall generous over southern and eastern parts of the nation with the series of troughs, the most widespread falls over the eastern inland where the flood risk remains this week. Moderate rainfall possible for SA and WA with the systems passing through but it will be the secondary system that needs watching for these areas. Up north we know the wet season is knocking on the door and this too will increase rainfall chances for northern Australia. Eventually this will improve rainfall chances for QLD. Otherwise we are moving into an active period for most areas of the nation.

A closer look - you can refer to the GFS in the video.

Euro 00z - Temperature Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Temperatures are largely seasonal, though probably trending slightly cooler than normal through the southern and eastern inland where persistent cloud cover and rainfall will mean temperatures stay below average. That may also be the case for western areas of the nation as well, but up north the build up is early and heat levels are above average for this time of year, leading to that increased risk of early onset rainfall.

More coming up at 9pm looking at the rainfall across all models and my analysis of which ones carry a low moderate and high chance of verifying. It is going to be a busy week.

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