QLD - SHOWERS CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH DRIER DAYS ON THE HORIZON.

OVERVIEW

Finally, we have lost the cloud cover and cold conditions with a high moving in and clearing the weather throughout the state. The showers over the coastal areas in the southeast nearer a low-pressure system across coastal NSW will also clear as the flow turns more southwesterly.


The inland remaining dry for the rest of the week with morning frost possible over the central and southern inland and dry sunny days.


Not much change to the pattern at this time through next week.


SHORT TERM

That is because the bulk of the wet weather is forecast to move through southern Australia with the westerly wind regime in force for southern parts of the country. They are not super strong, but they are enough to shift the wind regime into an offshore position for the state leading to a drier pattern emerging which is welcome.


There is not much in the way of rainfall expected through the coming 10 days away from the trade winds over Cape York.


LONG TERM

Rainfall seems to be limited to southern Australia with frontal weather passing through the westerly wind belt. There is an absence of moisture throughout the country which is great for east of the country but not so great for the southeast and south of the nation in need of rainfall.


A series of strong cold fronts are expected to impact the SWLD which may increase the chance of rainfall through southwest Ag areas, and it is still uncertain as to how much of that will make it through southern parts of SA and into VIC.


For now the rest of the north and northeast and eastern inland looks settled for now but keep an eye on that moisture building offshore the northwest of the nation.


AREAS TO WATCH

The moisture building offshore WA. That is clearly going to play a part in introducing larger rainfall potential through the jet stream and into strong cold fronts that are anticipated to lurch northwards through the 20-30th of July.


The weather over the east may be settled for a while longer. This will support the flooding reducing but we are still sitting ducks to further flood issues moving through Spring into Summer this year over large areas of the nation, with the issue being over NSW and QLD and possibly into VIC as well.


The catchments over in the east are very wet and will remain so through to Spring and this may continue into Summer. The outlook for Spring will be updated later this week.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - WEDNESDAY 6TH JULY 2022


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to clear the east and drier air filtering through leading to more seasonal weather across the state. A few showers over the far northeast and the far southeast is expected to continue into the weekend before conditions clear throughout the state. There is not expected to be a great deal of rainfall or moisture throughout the coming week, but we may see the next more organised batch of rainfall approach through the back half of the month from the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Much more seasonal conditions expected to unfold over northern areas of the nation with a ridge, drier airmass and east to southeasterly winds returning with a stable airmass leading to clearer skies. Colder nights and days can be expected than what we normally see and that will take a while to recover after the anomalous rainfall event.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

July 13-20th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Not much change from last night with relatively seasonal expectations regarding rainfall to continue through the coming medium term, with no strong pull to either super dry or super wet for now, with frontal weather at the helm, driving the rainfall opportunities over the south and the ridging over interior parts and across the north suppressing rainfall chances there.

Temperature Anomalies

The persistent cooler signal is expected to continue over northern Australia with the risk of that spreading to the eastern inland and along the east coast also increasing in likelihood through this period. Warmer air being drawn in over interior WA is thanks to cold fronts and persistent northwest winds, running over the warmer waters offshore. Seasonal conditions expected for much of the southeast and south with fluctuating temperatures.

DATA - Refer to the video at the top of the page for further information.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for more information and context.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Anomalously dry air in the west and more humid air in the east is set to mix out over the coming weekend and into next week with a more typical moisture load across the country expected to appear with frontal weather taking over the south and ridging over central and northern areas. Note the moisture that builds into the medium term, could this be the shift towards another wetter signal for the end of the month?

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in -looks like a big bag of nothing for a while but reviewing the moisture profile above, another wet spell may develop for the end of the month for northern and eastern Australia.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.



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