QLD - SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY - SEVERE IN THE EAST.

* There will be a system reboot overnight and I am doing some back of house activity ahead of the Apple App being launched tomorrow night. Details to come *


Strong to severe storms will feature once again as we track through Thursday as a deepening trough over NSW creeps into southern QLD, and becomes the focus for severe weather as we track into the afternoon and evening.


The good news, the stormy weather is slowly clearing eastwards Friday and through the weekend, we may begin to have a dry spell develop for inland areas with a hot airmass descending across the state.


Finally a chance to dry out, with rainfall retreating to coastal areas and throughout the tropical north.


Next week, the blow torch may be turned on high, with some inland areas approaching the low to mid 40s! In stark contrast to the cooler Spring we have had with wet weather.


You can thank the impulse of tropical weather passing through the Coral and Tasman Sea during next week for that nice break from the rainfall, thankfully it stays out there.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to remain scattered, uneven in distribution and heavy if you are under a storm. The weather is expected to remain humid and unsettled over the eastern districts through Friday before we have a reduction in humidity and decreasing rainfall over the weekend into next week. Dry and stable air with a ridge passing through will kick off the weekend with hot weather. Tropical areas, you will get your usual hit and miss build up showers about the coast and thunderstorms inland. The more organised rainfall could start to emerge in about 10 days from now. Make the most of the dry spell.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms this evening will begin to simmer down and clear eastwards, but the storm activity may persist in those eastern areas during Thursday morning before further thunderstorms fire up along the trough over southeast and southern QLD and more scattered storms developing all the way back through Central QLD and into the NT. The thunderstorms may turn severe in these areas, but the risk is not as elevated as southeastern areas. All modes of severe weather is possible over the southeast.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Flash flood risk is high to very high over the far southeast and southern inland areas with a moderate risk extending northwards on and east of the GDR during the afternoon and evening. A low risk extends back through inland areas with strong storms. The western interior is drying out with stable air.

Large Hail Risk Thursday

Large hail is an elevated chance over the southeast inland during the afternoon and evening but more likely over NSW

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Damaging winds may feature with strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening with the highest risk found along the trough and that will extend north and northwest along the trough into the NT.

Riverine Flood Risk Thursday through Saturday

Heavy overnight rainfall has resulted in flooding renewed along the river systems still swollen from rainfall in November. Additional thunderstorms with flash flooding will increase the riverine flood risk into the weekend long after the rain has concluded. The highest risk along the NSW border during the remainder of this week into the weekend

00Z GFS -Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Significant rainfall is expected to unfold over the southeast of the nation during the course of the next 2-3 days with a deepening upper level low passing through NSW and deepening off the east coast. This will cause some flood risks down through the southeast of NSW and eastern VIC. The severe storm threat continues for the next 2 days over eastern NSW and QLD before the weather eases over the weekend. The heat is on next week with a significant pool of heat heading southeast and east from the northwest of the nation. So more summer like conditions expected for southern Australia. The north of the nation remains in routine weather leading to prolonged build up conditions. The west will turn cooler, which will be welcome after the heatwave this week. The cooler weather enhanced by a cold front developing next week for the SWLD. Watching that fast flow pattern in the medium term that will send a nasty heatwave across the nation and then the rain returns with a very deep moisture supply ahead of Christmas as you can see here and in the PW values below.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

We see a nice tongue of drier air coming through the east and south of the nation from next week, the high humidity will be replaced with a decent period of drier and more stable air which will be welcome for many of you who have been swimming in recent weeks. The dry air also extends back to WA with cooler conditions in a fresh westerly wind regime through much of next week. The tropics is where you should find the persistent moisture during this time of year and that is where it will be from about early next week with the showers and storms thinning out even up there, thanks to high pressure aloft. But watch that moisture return and combine with the high heat, a very robust atmosphere is being progged on the medium term portion of the outlook, something that I will monitor in the days ahead.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More can be found in the video above.

A closer look in - rainfall to contract north next week but it will return for the week leading into Christmas.

More to come from 7am EDT.

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