QLD - SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE.

Widespread falls are expected throughout the coming week with a trough setting up shop through central and southern inland QLD, extending back northwest towards the NT with a deep layer of moisture near and to the east of the trough producing the unsettled weather. To the west and south of the trough, dry air and settled conditions expected.


Along the coast, onshore winds are forecast to continue with showery periods for most coastal districts and areas into the GDR. Some locally heavy falls are expected for the southeast coastal hinterland and the tropics north of Mackay through Cape York.


The weather is expected to stay largely unchanged throughout the coming week.


For tropical areas, the monsoonal flow is anticipated to increase north of the nation and this will see rain and thunderstorms becoming more widespread and frequent from the weekend. There is the chance of a tropical low forming near Cape York which may lead to flash flooding and strong and gusty winds developing.


It is looking like a busier week of weather. Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to impact most districts throughout the state though the weather over the far west may remain drier for now, but even there, I am drawing in light falls to indicate the risk of thundery weather moving west is quite possible from later this week into the weekend. Frequent showers and thunder for coastal areas with squally easterly winds is expected most days this week, heaviest about the southeast and along the coast north of Mackay. For tropical areas, widespread showers and thunderstorms to continue in the trade winds along the FNQ coast and developing later this week with the monsoonal flow increasing over the weekend into next week. Moisture from the monsoonal flow will move south over the north next week. Finally, there is the chance of a tropical low developing north of the nation and this could impact Cape York, enhancing rainfall.


Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the east of a trough through northwest, central and southern inland QLD. Thunderstorms may also drift into the western suburbs of Brisbane. There is the chance of damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding across a large region of inland QLD. The approach of an upper trough through SA may trigger some very isolated thundery showers at night over far southwest QLD.

Flash Flood Risk Monday

Heavy rainfall with thunderstorm clusters near a trough is expected to feature for southern and central inland QLD extending northwest through to the Gulf Country during the afternoon and evening. Some areas could see 50mm in an hour given the moisture profile and slow motion of thunderstorm activity throughout the state.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to lead to heavy rainfall rates, increasing the risk of local downbursts during the afternoon and evening.

DATA - Refer to video for further analysis and guidance relating to the forecast charts above and the movement on the data sets.


00Z GFS- Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Not much change from this morning for the short term, but from later in the outlook period, the spread, depth and scale of the monsoonal weather over northern Australia will have consequences for the nation's weather. There is likely to be tropical low pressure form or cyclone activity form over northern parts of the nation. Classically, as we move into early March, the traditional format for rainfall spreading across the nation is from northwest to southeast from WA, through central interior and SA and then into NSW and VIC. This is a decent chance. Across the east of the nation, onshore winds for the coming week will see frequent showers for the NSW and QLD coast, locally heavy with cooler temperatures. The onshore flow will feed the trough over the inland producing showers and storms on a daily basis for much of QLD, NSW and into the ACT and northern VIC. Overall the nation will turn wetter as we go through the outlook period. Once we get to the end of the first week of March, we could have a neutral SAM, reducing rainfall risks along the east coast and bringing back the frontal waves for southern Australia, helping to bring in more moisture from the north and northwest so that is something to watch. Not an overwhelming signal but is there.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture spread across the nation remains unchanged, it has been building in recent days and is likely to increase further then drift south through to VIC by the middle to latter part of the week. The moisture over northern Australia rising sharply as the trough north of the nation deepens and a monsoonal westerly flow moves closer to the nation. If we have a low pressure system developing north of the nation as the GFS says this week (has picked the tropics reasonably well this week), then we could see widespread rainfall develop earlier than what other models are suggesting. Refer to the rainfall and models post this evening.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further guidance

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further guidance

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further guidance and a state based fly around.

A closer look in - the wet weather is expected to increase throughout this week.

More weather information coming up later this evening with the models and rainfall wrap and as mentioned in the email agenda today, plenty on the board to cover off this week.



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