The humid and warm soupy airmass is about to come alive over broad areas of the state with a series of troughs expected to move through the region leading to showers and widespread thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls possible.

The rainfall will also increase over northern districts which will be welcome for communities still recovering from a very long drought.

The southern and southeast areas could see severe thunderstorms from Sunday with damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. This severe weather risk then looks to stick around into next week with troughs amplifying through the inland and about the southeast.

A stronger system may approach later next week with even more widespread severe weather potential.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is scattered and uneven for much of this period. Showers and thunderstorms forecast in most districts across the coming 10 days with the most widespread activity expected over the state during Sunday and Monday then again mid to late next week as a stronger system approaches. Some areas could record 1 month's worth of rainfall out of thunderstorm activity. The atmosphere is very humid and that above average humidity will lead to above average rainfall chances.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are expected across the west of the state during the afternoon and evening as a trough deepens over the NT and SA and progresses eastwards. There is also the chance of thunderstorms over the Warrego and the Carnarvon Ranges during the afternoon and evening, these possibly bringing damaging winds.

Damaging Winds Risk Saturday

Damaging winds a small risk over the southern and central inland of the state with thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

DATA - Refer to video blog for more

GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

I will mention that the low pressure system coming out of WA through next week poses the biggest threat to farming and logistics/freight operations - this system is being poorly modelled at the moment and will be updated regularly here through the weekend.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Note the constant stream of moisture passing over the northwest of the nation and being fed into the jet stream and propelled into the southern and eastern inland with troughs and northern tips of frontal weather. These values are well above average.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The above average moisture values will dominate much of the outlook period for large parts of eastern and northern Australia. That said, as you will see tonight, the GFS is one of the driest models at the moment.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details can be found in the video.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

A closer look in.

More weather after 9pm tonight looking at all things rainfall.

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