QLD - SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE STATE.

A broad trough and a moist airmass are combining to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to large parts of QLD, especially on and west of the divide for Tuesday and Wednesday.


The remains of Tiffany are currently over the interior of SA and will be sheared off to the east over the coming days, leading to areas of rain and thunderstorms for southwest QLD and showers and widespread thunderstorms for remaining areas inland of the coast.


A broad unstable northeast to easterly flow looks to be in place as well with showers and thunderstorms tending numerous on most days this week, before the trough heads west once again and sharpens over SA. That may see a reduction in rainfall across the state heading into the weekend, but the humidity will remain.


Moving into Australia Day, the trough over SA will get nudged to the east, this allowing for the showers and thunderstorms to return with severe weather risks into next week. Some heavy rainfall returning to the forecast is quite possible.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to remain fairly scattered over large areas of the state, but more concentrated rainfall over the southwest and southern areas could lead to areas of flash flooding in the coming 1-2 days, depending on the track of Tiffany. Once she has washed out, the showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop most afternoons across the inland with the chance of heavy falls, but the coverage more isolated than the coming 2 days. The weekend, may be hot and dry for many, with only isolated showers along the coast and over the inland. Next week the trough over SA moves back to the east, so more showers and thunderstorms coming into the forecast with some locally heavy falls possible.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms will be featuring across a large portion of QLD on Tuesday with heavy rainfall the main threat across the state as the remains of Tiffany move through. Some of the storms could be gusty as well. The coastal areas will see onshore winds and showers keeping the air relatively stable for the most part. Over the tropics, the usual afternoon song and dance of random scattered showers and thunderstorms in a warm airmass.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

Flash flooding is a very high risk for southwest areas of QLD and through parts of the NT as well, signifying where the trough is and the remains of Tiffany will go. Some areas could see falls of 100mm in quick time through the southwest of QLD if Tiffany moves over the region.

DATA - More on the data in the video at the top of the page.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Refer to the video for more guidance, there are changes in the modelling expected in the coming days, but this gives you the very latest breakdown in daily analysis for the short and medium term, but I do stress it will change.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The most moisture I have seen cover the nation in about a decade at this time of year means that some areas regardless of modelling, will be clobbered!

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

A closer look in - some really high values being presented here in the short and medium term! It will change but some areas could cop a hiding to round out January.

More weather coming up later this evening looking at all the modelling and rainfall information again, seeing how the SA trough performs across the data sets and the tropical system over northern Australia with impacts into the medium term.





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