QLD - SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASING A TAD BUT BACK FROM MID WEEK.

Widespread rainfall today with those excessive rainfall rates are expected to ease over the Wide Bay and Burnett through the Capricornia. The weather is expected to moderate somewhat during Tuesday, the weather is drier for inland areas with a sliver of high pressure with warmer upper levels developing.


The moisture and humidity remains in place however it increases dramatically as we track another system into the state from mid to late week, combining with the deeper moisture in place to see a return to heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.


This will increase the risk of riverine flooding in some locations once again and renew flood peaks along existing flooded tributaries.


The weather is likely to stay wet and unsettled through to the weekend however, some drier air may make it into the far south and west later in the weekend.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has been excessive during the past 24hrs with many locations recording 50-150mm of rainfall. That rainfall is likely to ease Tuesday but return from Wednesday into the weekend with additional 100-200mm possible in some places. Flash and riverine flooding during the period is likely with thunderstorms. The weather remaining very humid and unsettled along parts of the coast in onshore winds, the showers may be heavy at times away from the surface trough. The weather over the far west dries out this weekend but the humid, unsettled and wet weather may persist elsewhere. Heavy rainfall is also possible about the tropical north with the return of deep trade winds, running over higher than average SSTs in the Coral Sea.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms will ease tonight and flatten to areas of moderate to heavy rainfall. Tomorrow the thunderstorms will be found inland of the coastal fringe but more likely from about Noosa northwards to Mackay. Severe thunderstorms are possible once again with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding but I will assess this risk during the morning. The west is dry. Isolated thunderstorms possible over Cape York but mainly suppressed with an upper high aloft.

Riverine Flood Risk

Significant rainfall will add to the flooding that is already underway after a wet 48hrs. I will update this chart later this evening.

DATA

00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The weather is anticipated to turn unsettled as mentioned in the video from mid week over SA and then into the eastern states. Deep moisture, high levels of instability are expected to lead to widespread rainfall with scattered heavy falls, flooding and severe storm potential. The weather gradually clears from the south and west through SA and VIC from Friday and NSW from Saturday and QLD Sunday, though coastal areas in the east may remain humid with showers, but heavy falls will retreat to the tropics. Out west your weather is turning hotter and drier and this may creep into SA next week. Some potential for another rainfall event next week for the southeast or east which may deliver additional rain and thunderstorms but the confidence is low with not all models on board, however another low in that position that Euro is suggesting is placing a shiver up my spine for flood risks next week on top of what happens this week, IF it happens. The northern tropics getting more unsettled over this week with a better coverage of storms, some severe.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

No change to the guidance with a deep moisture layer in place throughout much of the north and east which begins to move east and north over the weekend, but some chance it could stall out well into next week over parts of NSW and QLD. The drier air can be found over WA and into SA then VIC from the weekend but as mentioned above, a third system with equal rainfall potential has me very concerned next week IF it verifies.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More on this after 9pm tonight.

A closer look in

More details to come on all things rainfall after 9pm tonight.

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