QLD - SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE WEST TUESDAY.

The weather in the east, mild to warm and humid with the onshore winds bringing in cloudy skies and a few showers here and there but nothing too dramatic or heavy.


The main rainfall activity across the nation is sitting over the NT and into SA, with a broken batch of storms are expected to move eastwards later tomorrow and into the western districts. These are unlikely to be severe.


The weather turning more humid and unsettled gradually as we go along this week as the trough moves into the state. Scattered showers and thunderstorms on and east of the trough will feature from Wednesday right through the weekend. Some chance of these turning severe at times with a very dense and humid airmass.


The humid and tropical weather sticks around for next week while the tropics itself very humid and becoming more unstable with the trade winds pumping in very deep moisture supply across the region. The upper high suppresses rainfall chances this week but that will change next week.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall continues to be light along the coast for much of this week, a ridge sending in onshore easterly winds is bringing showers and humid air across the state, but the ridge being close by, meaning rainfall will be light and the showers capped heavily. For the western districts, showers and thunderstorms developing from the west during the week. The gradual progress of the thunderstorm activity from the western districts into central areas of the state will take it's time before the whole state then becomes more unstable with showery period and local thunderstorms featuring from the weekend and into next week with a stagnant area of moisture and troughs oscillating around the state.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

The main thunderstorm development is along a trough axis back over NT and SA, the remains of this activity may spread into the west and southwest during the afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall though at this stage, the severe risks are further west of the state. Some areas could see 20mm of rainfall tomorrow from thunderstorms in the west and they will be very lightning active being elevated.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Not much change from this morning. The Euro is quite aggressive in the thunderstorm development with the chance of heavy rainfall over outback areas of WA, NT and SA. That is supported by the other modelling but they differ on rainfall placement so be aware that colours will chop and change but the atmosphere, from run to run, is largely unchanged. That is the parameter to focus on. The troughs of low pressure moving out of WA will run into the moist airmass, which I will add is well above normal, near record values in some spots. So simple math means, that equals the chance of record rainfall totals for some during this period. The Euro has a strong trough passing through the southern states this week, before it stalls out over the eastern inland this weekend in a soupy and unstable northeast flow around a big high in the Tasman. The next storm system develops out of the heat trough over in WA and that may wrap into a low pressure system while moving through SA this weekend with another round of strong to severe storms before that deepens over VIC and NSW with further rain and thunderstorms. Another system may emerge from WA once again continuing the conveyor belt of wet and humid unsettled weather. This should not come as a surprise as I have given you a 2-3 week lead in time. To the west of all the unsettled humid weather, cooler than normal and dry for SWLD of WA through much of this period. Over QLD, the NT and northern WA, severe thunderstorms are possible off and on through this period with flash flooding the biggest concern (that applies nationwide with a saturated atmosphere). The shower and rainfall coverage with thick cloud eventually bringing down the heat values nationwide.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

This paints the picture and shows you the highest moisture values of the spring so far. You marry the above average anomalies with low pressure, your result is high levels of thunderstorm activity, and widespread rainfall with above average rainfall expected for many parts of the nation. Maybe some drier air being drawn into the southern states at the end of the run, but other solutions do not support this so will watch trends. Weather over in SWLD cooler and drier with onshore winds and stable air.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Values in the yellow are 2 inch PW values, meaning that the air is tropical, saturated right up the trace of the atmosphere and this means lots of cloud, rain, thunderstorms and cooler humid weather for many areas. The drier weather will eventually spill into the southern coastal areas but may not sweep out the humidity over much of the northern two thirds of the nation. So this could exacerbate attempts to harvest, efficiently and the higher humidity may cause damage to crops via severe weather and that high moisture content for a long duration.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more and the post after 9pm EDT for more details.

Uneven blotchy rainfall data represents the thundery nature of the outlook period.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more and the post after 9pm EDT for more details.

CMC 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more and the post after 9pm EDT for more details.

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks

Refer to video for more and the post after 9pm EDT for more details.

More details coming up on all things rainfall and there are some wild solutions floating around out there. I will break down the details for you all.










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