QLD - SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS MID WEEK. DRY INLAND.

You can catch up on the weather over the tropical north here.


A clearance behind a trough with drier air and high pressure bringing more sunshine to areas that were drenched again last night. After a month's worth of rainfall for many, up to 2 months for those close to the NSW border, the weather is set to be stable, but only temporarily.


Another upper low is forecast to move northeast from SA and pass into inland NSW and begin to deepen, tapping into residual moisture via easterly winds, those easterly winds bringing back that moisture from mid week. With unstable air play, that means thunderstorms are set to redevelop for the southern and southeast areas, possibly as far north as the Central Districts.


Given the forecast confidence is rather low at the moment, the ingredients are there for further heavy rainfall developing with thunderstorms mid to late week, though it does appear once again a lot will fall in NSW.


The dry weather signal does continue west of the upper low in divergence and dry air with high pressure building over western districts. This will lead to sunny warm to hot days and not much chance of rainfall through this time.


Coastal areas from the southeast and up to the tropics, showers will continue, but more frequent and heavy over the far southeast and in areas north of Proserpine. Heavy falls may develop with a tropical wave over the northeast later in the weekend into next week.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has returned to being coastal for the coming 24-36hrs with widespread low cloud in onshore winds over the central and northern coastal areas leading to light to moderate shower coverage. Now as we get into Wednesday, an upper low will move into northwest NSW and this will combine with limited moisture for QLD to produce scattered showers and storms. These may in fact become more widespread as the moisture deepens a little later this week with isolated heavy falls possible with thunderstorms later this week. Severe storms may linger into the weekend over southern and central areas, but with the lack of daytime heating now, we are seeing less intensive severe weather threats. However, catchments are wet and heavy rainfall over areas hit hard last night will carry a higher chance of flash flooding and riverine flooding. The weather will begin to dry out as we get towards the end of the weekend with drier air surging north and this may also clear the coastal areas south of Mackay as well with a warmer airmass via westerly winds.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - April 11th-18th 2022

Moisture Spread

Great odds of seeing the last of the tropical waves passing through the tropics in the medium term with some heightened risk of showers and thunderstorms. There may be moisture remaining in place for eastern areas of the nation in weak onshore winds for NSW but a stronger flow for QLD where the trade winds could bring in some heavier falls. Moisture may also begin to be drawn into the westerly wind belt leading to more rain and cloud cover over much of southwest and southern Australia.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies for this period are remaining fairly neutral for most areas away from the northern tropics where there is evidence of that lingering wet season influence via the tropical wave. The bias for drier weather remains over inland areas however, has been softened to reflect the uncertainty surrounding the development of moisture out of the northwest and north of the nation feeding into weather systems moving through the Southern Ocean. Timing is everything.

Temperature Anomalies

No change to the temperature anomalies through the nation for the second week of April. Above average temperatures will continue for large sections of interior Australia with a broad high pressure ridge in place and slowly moving through and extending through the southeast of Tasman Sea leading to a warm northwest to northerly flow establishing over the southern parts of the country. Pockets of the nation, being the southwest, the far east and northeast of QLD could see below average temperatures, but the nation as a whole seasonal to above seasonal temperatures.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details can be found in the video at the top of the page.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

There is some seriously dry air being forecast across the middle and upper portions of the nation that will not only suppress rainfall chances moving forward beyond the next severe weather potential for the east, but could also lead to a prolonged period of below average rainfall for some locations into the latter part of the month if this was to verify. So will be watching keenly to see how that plays out. You can see the tropics are very much quiet (not dead) and the Indian Ocean only having influence in the short term on the back of the week long storm event.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - rainfall becoming a bit lean across coastal QLD representing the upper heights are increasing. May see uneven distribution of rainfall through inland areas with storms this weekend. Far western areas dry.


I will have the Climate Outlook Update tomorrow and a look at the weather once again from 8am EST. Have a great evening.

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