The wet weather continues for QLD, with a weak trough over inland areas today and tonight, this feature is set to remain near stationary with the risk of showers and thunderstorms increasing Monday and Tuesday for interior parts. Some of these storms may also turn severe with heavy rainfall, damaging winds and a few with the chance of producing large hail.

This risk will work back towards the coast during mid week and the coverage continuing throughout the remainder of the week into next weekend.

The showers over the northern parts of the state are set to ramp up with thunderstorms are expected to become heavier and more persistent. The rainfall is likely to be above average in some locations over the north in anticipation of the monsoonal flow approaching.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is likely to remain very much hit and miss as per normal for this time of year and appear daily through most locations. The northern areas are more likely to see an increase in the showers and thunderstorms as the air becomes more unstable. The weather over the southern and central areas unstable near a trough. Some risk that there may be a deepening low pressure trough over the southeast of the state later this week which could see another round of more widespread severe thunderstorm activity, but more data needs to be consumed before the forecast confidence increase on this idea.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are likely to appear once again with a broad risk over the interior west of the divide and through to the northern tropics. The coastal areas should remain storm free with a stable cool onshore airmass with the main trigger well inland. The storms over the inland may produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Some chance of large hail for only a few storms.

Flash Flood Risk Monday

Relatively high atmospheric moisture levels will lead into a risk of flash flooding, especially over those wet catchments. The risk is moderate and widely scattered in the region.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

Damaging winds are a moderate risk with the heavy rainfall from thunderstorms leading to strong outflow boundaries in the watch area. But it is a relatively moderate risk.

Large Hail Risk Monday

Large hail a low risk through the region identified and I will review this again during the morning.

DATA- You can see the GFS and CMC in the video.

00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pattern is fairly complex, low confidence and that means that your forecast will change from run to run, quite wildly in the next few days. Note the areas of interest will be the storm outbreak over the southeast and east of the nation mid week that could a spawn a heavy rainfall event on the NSW or VIC coast. The tropical weather is becoming more dynamic as we have seen today and the west is hot and dry with a heatwave underway and that may spread eastwards this coming weekend into SA and then VIC.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The moisture is expected to be reserved over the northern and eastern parts of the nation and that is where you will find the rainfall. The amount you see will come down to the position of low pressure over the north and the east and where the monsoon enters in the medium term, which we will not know for about 2 days. it is a tricky forecast. The west of the nation looks drier under high pressure and that will extend into SA and western NSW and VIC.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

I am leaning with this solution - I do think the tropical weather will change drastically from run to run. That will impact the rainfall forecasts down the track for southern and eastern Australia.

A closer look in - the rainfall amounts will vary from location with the thunderstorm in place and some of these could drop 50mm in a sitting, the far southwest could well be dry for a while.

More details coming up in the rainfall wrap after 9pm EDT and that will be an interesting read.

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