QLD - SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR POCKETS IN COMING DAYS - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SEQ THIS WEEKEND.

There are a few moving pieces to watch through the outlook period including the chance of severe weather getting close to southern QLD with an upper level low over NSW, but likely to spawn storms but the more widespread severe weather expectations are forecast south of the border.


Across the southeast the weather is forecast to be showery with some local thunder. It is a tricky forecast and it must be mentioned as the forecast could change rapidly, there may be severe weather potential in the form of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding over the southeast areas Friday through Sunday morning.


This is thanks to the developing low offshore which by this stage would be transitioning and this means the system expands. The expansion of the wind fields and moisture could see it impact the southeast coast bringing a period of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms for coastal areas, but it is a CONDITIONAL risk!


Elsewhere, thunderstorms over the inland areas of the state will begin to wind down by Sunday with a drier airmass unfolding near an upper high. This high should control weather for much of next week.


Under the ridging there will be a fast flow develop for southeast and southern Australia which will lead to more of a northwest to northerly flow through the eastern inland. This may cause a drier picture developing for much of QLD with above average temperatures with some luck.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to become uneven in distribution through the inland areas with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the next 2-3 days on the northern flank of an upper low driving severe weather risks through NSW. The east coast will see showers, heaviest over the tropics and about the far southeast in onshore winds. There is some model madness surrounding the impact of a low offshore the SEQ Coast. With the convergence over NSW and building offshore with the tropical system over the Coral Sea, there may be widespread heavy rainfall developing just offshore with the chance of some flood risks for coastal areas. So this will be watched closely. Over the course of next week, most areas should tend drier with a northerly flow developing ahead of a few frontal passages south of the state.

Southern QLD - Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall could become heavy over the east coast with the moisture projecting westwards from the Coral Sea and feeding into the trough coming in from NSW. There may also be large amounts of convergence keeping heavy rainfall very close to the coast if not over the coast. Otherwise uneven distribution of rainfall with thunderstorms are forecast over inland areas.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the edge of a develop upper level low that will be moving through NSW during the afternoon. Some of the storms may creep into the Southern Downs and Granite Belt but at this time, no severe weather is forecast just yet.

Flash Flood Risk - Thursday to Saturday

Thunderstorms may become a little more organised as the airmass becomes more unstable over the eastern inland. Storms may produce heavy amounts of rainfall, but with slow storm motion, the rainfall totals could be high in quick time. The coverage of the severe weather risk is isolated over a broad region. There is a low risk at this time with that low offshore the east coast over the weekend.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - April 12th-19th 2022

Moisture Spread

Moisture spread has not been changed from yesterday though just increasing the coverage of impact over northwest of Australia in relation to the tropical wave getting into the Indian Ocean. But overall, the airmass is very dry for large parts of the nation and rainfall coverage over the southeast during this period is expected to be light with high pressure in full force so not seeing much getting through that area of sinking air.

Rainfall Anomalies

A rather benign period of weather for much of the nation with ridging in control across southern parts. This is normal in relation to the seasonal transition across the country. The northern tropics could see some above average rainfall via the tropical wave passing through during this time, but higher chances are over the northern coastal areas. East coast could see another east coast trough between Brisbane and Newcastle but once again, the signals are poor but has been flagged in recent days.

Temperature Anomalies

Warmer than normal temperatures are still forecast for large areas of the nation's interior and this is thanks to ridging over much of the nation. Around the upper and surface high, onshore winds will provide cloud cover and seasonal to below average temperatures are forecast. Watching the westerly wind belt south of the nation which could send up colder air over the southeast which has been flagged but confidence is not as high on that idea.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details can be found in the video for the short and medium term. It helps to put into context the parts of the outlook that carries higher confidence for certain areas over others.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture is set to deepen over the east with that persistent La Nina look to the distribution as well for the eastern states leading to the flood risk yet again. Watching the moisture offshore QLD as to whether that heads towards the SEQ coast this weekend. Otherwise the west and central parts of the nation extending into western NSW, VIC and QLD through to early next week under drier air for the most part with ridging. Then the fast flow pattern takes over and kicks out the humidity from the east early next week and fingers crossed a much drier picture develops for the east coast and rainfall and moisture returns to the southern coastal areas. We are still seeing the deepening moisture levels over northern Australia through the medium term as well taking us through Easter and into ANZAC Day.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - rainfall over the southeast needs to be watched closely for the threat of severe weather Friday into the weekend as the low pressure system east, may be pulled towards the coast bringing up heavy rainfall chances. Once the inland loses the rainfall by Sunday it should be dry from that point on.


More coming up from 8am EST looking at the severe weather potential and a more detailed look at May 2022. Many will be watching closely as to whether the wet weather comes back to southern Australia and leaves the east.

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