A deepening moisture profile over much of the nation is expected to be lifted by an upper trough during Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms through inland areas. Severe thunderstorms carry chance of a appearing once again through inland areas with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main risk.

Over the coastal areas, onshore winds and showers are forecast to increase in response to the upper trough moving into western QLD. This will increase the dynamic support for taller and gustier showers approaching the coast and leading to heavier rainfall totals in the broad unstable easterly flow.

The monsoonal weather over the north is set to ramp up over the coming week, bringing the chance of tropical depression formation which may lead to flooding rainfall later in this period.

All in all, a wet signal for many areas of QLD, bar the very far southwest where drier air may remain trapped under a ridge over central Australia.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

As mentioned, a very wet signal continues for large areas of the state as onshore winds feed a deep trough that remain slow moving over the coming week. Over the north the instability values will increase with the monsoon developing thanks to the MJO passing through northern Australia. A tropical low or two north of the state may enhance rainfall for far northern areas. Inland areas, widespread showers and afternoon thunderstorms will continue for much of this period with uneven distribution of rainfall So below is the average coverage of what you can expect through the coming 10 days.


Widespread showers and local thunderstorms most days through the coming 7-10 day period should bring an average of the rainfall displayed here for inland areas. Along the coast, persistent onshore winds with showers, locally heavy and gusty at times, will see rainfall totals accumulate in excess of 100mm in may areas along the coast over the coming 10 days but the falls will decrease as you head inland, but those areas inland could have convergent rainfall with storms moving out of the west, decaying and low topped showers running underneath that activity, bringing plenty of rainfall for areas inland of the coast over the coming 10 days.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms will return to a large chunk of the inland during the afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper trough with deep moisture being lifted. Strong to severe storms may produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds. The storms may continue through the evening. Isolated thunderstorms may tend scattered over tropical areas during the afternoon and evening with heavy falls possible.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding with thunderstorms is possible during the afternoon and evening with rainfall rates of 100mm/hr possible over the southern and central inland of QLD as the upper trough approaches. There may be some flash flooding up over the northern tropics as well.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Strong outflow winds are possible with thunderstorms over inland areas with heavy rainfall from thunderstorms causing strong downbursts.

Tropical Depression Risk - This Week

With the monsoonal flow developing over the open water during this week you will notice larger clusters of thunderstorm activity. These clusters may become more organised and low pressure systems may develop. Given the elevated SSTs through the region (not as elevated as per January but it is sufficient) depression formation is quite likely from later this week and through the weekend. Refer to the chart to that shows you where the models are placing the tropical depressions and where they ago. The confidence in identifying the system that is the dominant tropical low is very poor.

Tropical Cyclone Risk - This Week

With the monsoonal trough sitting over the open water and the MJO passing through the north of the nation from the weekend and into next week, any tropical low that forms in the waters offshore the coast, carry a moderate chance of developing into a cyclone. The most likely outcome based of analogue data is that a system will form north of the NT and then head west through the Arafura, Timor and then Indian Ocean. That will then deepen offshore northwest WA and then turn towards the Pilbara and then inland through WA. That would spread heavy rainfall over the northern tropics but then pull the heavy rainfall shield away from the NT and over WA and another pulse of monsoonal weather would develop over Cape York.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the daily breakdown

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

A dynamic weather situation is unfolding across the nation over the coming 10 days and many areas will see 1-2 months worth of rainfall through northern and eastern VIC, much of inland NSW, through inland QLD and much of the tropics. This is in line with the wet signals off the global models and the climate drivers and should come as no surprise here as we have been talking about the wet end to February and start of March for some time. The weather is supportive of severe weather developing as well as riverine flooding developing as well. More to come on that through the days ahead and more analysis in the video.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

The very deep moisture profile over much of Australia looks more likely to be with us for the next 10-15 days, especially over northern and eastern Australia where low pressure is in place and likely to remain, leading to the moisture being lifted into above average rainfall and thunderstorms. This reflects the above average moisture content in line with a waning La Nina phase.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further analysis and the fly around with your state and further details.

A closer look in - the numbers are starting to reflect a flood risk over the coming weeks for northern areas and I will have more on this in the coming days as confidence improves.

More coming up in the models and rainfall analysis for the coming short, medium and longer term data and tomorrow more details from 8am EDT.

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