QLD - SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MANY AREAS THIS WEEK, INCREASING TROPICAL ACTIVITY.

The weather over the state is remaining very humid with unsettled skies for southern and far northern areas this weekend with a slab of drier air in between keeping things settled.


The coverage of thunderstorms is likely to increase from next week as a trough about the southeast moves north and then propelled westwards into the interior. This is where many districts may feel the impacts of storms with severe weather chances coming up as well.


The flooding is slowly receding in some locations but increasing in others and further rain and thunderstorms could exacerbate the flooding for the southern and central inland with the risk of heavy falls about.


The weather is unable to clear up for inland areas during this period. The weather is likely to remain wet for now most days with a high moisture content keeping things very tropical.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall each day will be earned via thunderstorms, so you know what that means, more uneven distribution of rainfall to continue. For the flood zones, the rainfall at this time, not likely to lead to any further peaks in the flood cycle, however given the flash flood risk, that may pose more of an issue for built up urban areas in the country areas. The rainfall may increase more dramatically mid to late week with a trough passing through from the west and a low developing over NSW. This may see the showers and storms turn to more widespread rainfall in around 1 weeks time which will need to be watched closely. The tropical north now starting to see more active weather in anticipation for the chance of monsoonal weather developing north of the nation.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening, near and north/east of a stalled boundary that will be sitting over northern and northeast NSW. Severe storms are possible but more likely about the NSW border at this stage. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main issues at this time.

Flash Flood Risk Saturday

Flash flooding is a moderate to high risk given the high level of atmospheric moisture in the air aloft. This will mean that thunderstorms will be efficient rainfall producers and with catchments still very wet from months of rainfall, flash flooding will occur quite easily.

Damaging Winds Risk Saturday

Damaging winds a moderate to high risk with the storms running through a fairly gusty upper level wind profile. The heavier rainfall will help to mix the winds down to the surface.

Large Hail Risk Saturday

A low end risk for large hail to develop with thunderstorms.

DATA

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More thorough information in the video - but watching the following - the monsoonal flow up north, the severe weather threat over the east and southeast next week and the heatwave out west.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The east is on the cusp of another prolonged period of very high moisture levels. If the westerly surge in the medium term does not verify and remains easterly, I think many over the south and east may be in trouble relating to flooding. Note the very deep moisture over the north of the nation. And the southwest drier and hot for most of this period.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video.

A closer look in - the spotty nature of the rainfall shows the thunderstorm activity over the coming days which may become more widespread during the latter part of next week.

More weather coming up from 7am EDT


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