QLD - SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTRACTING EAST AND NORTH

And the dry weather is developing for much of the state as we move into the weekend, it has been lovely weather west of the trough with drier air and a good supply of sunshine with no severe weather issues.


From the weekend, that lack of severe weather will be shared over the inland while coastal areas with see one or two showers and a thunderstorm here and there but nothing to write home about.


The weather is expected to warm up dramatically however as we track into early next week and potential heatwave conditions are likely to emerge for inland areas. The coast should be spared with a noticeable increase in temperatures however.


With the high close by, the weather is expected dry, and potentially the driest weather we have seen since about September.


The tropics are getting interesting too next week and more on that in the video.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is largely contracting north and east over the course of the next 2 days with it not totally clearing some coastal areas but the inland can look forward to a break in the storms and high humidity. Some locations could go rainfall free for the best part of the next week. However with the tropics increasing in activity, the humidity will once again be introduced from the north and east with a shift in the wind profile to the east, once the high moves on into the Tasman. The next trough from NSW arrives later next week and this could form the focus of the next batch of rain and storms.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are expected once again on and east of the GDR as the trough moves through to the east, with the parent low attached over NSW also moving eastwards. A drier airmass will follow the trough so once you get back into sunny skies and a drier westerly, the storm risk ceases.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Thunderstorms along the immediate coast near and east of the trough as it moves through could produce local pockets of flash flooding on Friday. More isolated risks of flash flooding for the central inland.

DATA - I take you through the short and medium term details for ease of access in the video.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The main rainfall event for the nation is happening right now and once that is off the board through the southeast, the weather for the nation is turning drier as a whole with warming temperatures. Even the northern tropics will see a reduction in weather thanks to drier air being pushed through though watch that small tropical low over the Arafura Sea in the next week. Otherwise it is warmer, drier and more stable for much of the next 7 days. Finally.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Once we lose the moisture in the east, the air turns drier with more sunny days than not in the coming week. Though note the moisture returns over northern and eastern Australia as the weather begins to turn more unsettled as the SAM tends positive again and the easterly winds return following the fast flow pattern over southern Australia next week, which leads to the heat being shared around.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video

A closer look in - it will be dry next week but it will turn stormy and humid as we approach Christmas.

Temperature Anomalies - December 14-20th 2021

A sharp shift to warmer and drier weather nationally will result in moderate heatwave conditions for inland areas of SA, eastern WA, southern NT and perhaps western NSW and QLD. Dry heat with a north wind leading to elevated fire dangers in these regions as well, but less likely the further east you go. The west by contrast, cooler, with persistent onshore westerly winds. The weather over the north is dependent upon the movement of tropical mischief over the Arafura Sea.

I will be working further on the App this evening and have another update tomorrow from 7am EDT and a look at the 6 week outlook as well. Can we snag much drier weather?

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