The far west and southwest looks dry for now with a ridge in place and upper high parked over the region with the drier airmass on the western side of the trough. The weather however may shift a few showers and thunderstorms during early next week with another trough moving into the southern parts of the state.
Over the southeast, severe weather continue tonight with bands of thunderstorms and showers passing through as troughs rotate around the northern flank of a low that is now sitting further north than forecast, over Newcastle. This will add more dynamic support for rounds of severe weather tonight and again tomorrow.
Across the remainder of the coast, showers increasing this week with onshore winds feeding the trough over the Great Dividing Range, and locally heavy falls are possible for pockets of the entire coast, those areas more exposed to a southeasterly winds.
The tropics seeing below average rainfall for now, but that could change next week as the onshore flow via the trade winds becomes more unstable.
Inland areas may see severe thunderstorms again, particularly the Southern Inland and extending into East Central areas with the risk of this weather sticking around into next week with a stalled boundary. The boundary being cradled by the high to the south, feeding off the easterly winds.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to be heavy at times with thunderstorms, as we saw overnight and this morning through the southeast, some areas could record 50-100mm in quick time in the next 24 hours and again during next week as a trough lingers through the region. The showers also increasing along the remainder of the east coast, especially in those areas exposed to a southeasterly flow. That onshore flow will feed a new trough that will move into the inland from about Roma northwards causing more showers and thunderstorms most days next week. The risk of flash flooding with thunderstorms is quite possible most days next week. The tropics seeing below average rainfall right now but that could change next week, especially if the trade winds increase and turn more easterly, dragging in persistent moisture and showery periods with daily heavy falls. At this time, the far west and southwest dry, but that may change with the development of a new trough next week from SA.
Thunderstorm Forecast Friday
Thunderstorms are forecast to continue tonight and into Friday morning and there may be another wave tomorrow afternoon however the risk is conditional upon how much activity does develop this afternoon and charts will be reviewed in the morning.
Flash Flood Risk Friday
Heavy rainfall is still occurring with thunderstorms over the southeast this evening and likely overnight and again during Friday afternoon but the coverage of storms during the morning may offset the risk in the afternoon. Overall another few rounds of severe storms likely tomorrow.
Damaging Winds Risk Friday
Similar to the heavy rainfall risk with the thunderstorms producing strong and gusty outflow winds. There is the small chance of a tornado with thunderstorms overnight and during Friday.
Large Hail Risk Friday
A moderate risk of large hail with thunderstorms as the air is very unstable this evening. Unlike this morning, the atmosphere has been worked over so the convection at this time will be active but not as robust as this morning.
DATA - There are some data issues tonight from some of the models so cannot post the movie versions of the data. I believe there is an issue with some of the servers internationally.
More details coming up from 8am EDT on Friday.