The weather is looking decidedly September like as the last few weeks of drier weather over inland areas concludes, rising temperatures continue and easterly winds and showers for the east coast becomes more frequent.
It may appear to be fairly benign, but this is expected for mid September. However there are signs that rainfall could return over inland areas of the state with humidity developing and a weak trough present.
Lets take a look at the latest.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall is limited to coastal areas and over the tropical north and northeast with the increase of moisture and the presence of a weak upper trough. The winds over the east coast will turn more onshore, especially for the central and northern coasts. Sadly for those needing rainfall over the southeast, a trough and low will pull the chances away from the region now and clearing skies mid week is a fair forecast. The weather then will turn much warmer with over inland areas with a trough to spark a low chance of rainfall this weekend.
00Z EURO - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
The showery airmass with a cold front is expected to move northeast and bring moderate coverage of showers to the eastern coast of NSW on Monday through Wednesday, while the rest of the nation resides under high pressure. Then we track the high through to the east and by Wednesday the majority of the nation should be drying out with stable air. Up north, on the periphery of the high, humidity will lead to showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. A front approaching the southwest of the nation during Wednesday night into Thursday may bring another large burst of rainfall through the region, before that system moves east. It is anticipated the system will drag in a large amount of moisture from the northwest but as mentioned in the video, become decoupled from the lifting mechanism, that may see rainfall become patchy and light over SA before reappearing over NSW and VIC. It is a low confidence forecast.
00Z EURO - Precipitable Water Anomalies Next 10 days
Precipitable water anomalies are painting the picture of the battle underway between the dry air and the humid air up north, they are becoming intertwined, meaning rainfall chances are increasing then decreasing from run to run. As mentioned on Friday and yesterday plus in the video, we are tracking a drier change through SA with the system falling apart from SA, but then a rain band may reemerge over the eastern states as a trough finds the moisture and lifts back into areas of rainfall there. So there is a heightened risk of better rainfall once again over the east, the southern states probably miss out with this feature and QLD again looking dry, but watch the trough become stuck over QLD later in the run, as that is a chance of setting up the inland trough for QLD and maybe bringing up the chances of rainfall to end the month and to kick off October. The northern tropics also battling with the drier and humid air.
00Z EURO - Precipitation Next 10 days
Lean is the word I would use nationally, with another quiet week, but it is low confidence as outlined in the video.
I will have a wrap of the models later on tonight regarding rainfall later this week, as there is a lot riding on this system for many in SA and points east.