QLD - SEVERE WEATHER RISKS CONTINUE FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS.

The thunderstorms overnight and through this morning that brought flash flooding to the Brisbane Metro is a sign of what is to come through the next few days, but really right through Summer. This is what we can expect. More of these severe weather events kicking off from time to time with very productive rainfall likely.


This event that is passing through the state today through the weekend will continue to bring a high chance of rain and storms and those storms will pack a punch through southern areas tomorrow where all modes of severe weather is possible.


The storm risk is slow to edge east but will reach the eastern districts on Friday and across the weekend with heavy rainfall and strong winds. The rainfall likely to continue for many areas during the coming week, with no real chance to clear the instability as high pressure establishes itself in the Tasman and directs the very moist air into the instability, continuing the inland storm threat and widespread showers along the coast.


Lets take a look.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to occur on most days through the outlook and could turn locally heavy with thunderstorms each and every day over inland areas with the higher risk beginning to contract eastwards through the weekend. For the southeast, eastern and central areas, the showers and storms will continue for the foreseeable future with rainfall accumulation in some locations of 100-200mm possible increasing the risk of flooding throughout the state. Your number will vary in all zones with thunderstorms in the mix.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms will continue overnight and Thursday for inland areas with storms turning severe in a heartbeat over southern inland areas during the afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather is possible. Some of these storms could reach the southeast inland at night with heavy rainfall the main risk. Storms along the coast in the unstable northeast flow may produce areas of heavy rainfall with a flash flood risk. That also extends to Cape York in the afternoon as well.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

A very high chance of flash flooding through the inland overnight and again on Thursday with significant flood risks already in place along saturated catchments so remain weather aware. Some areas could record 70mm/hr.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

DamAging winds are a high risk through the southern inland as the lift and wind shear improves supporting more robust updrafts where the sun can break out. An organised squall line is also possible along a trough passing through.

Large Hail Risk Thursday

Large hail is possible about the far southern Downs but the risk is low up to the central districts with a hot and humid airmass being lifted by a trough rotating through.

Riverine Flood Risk Next 7 Days

The riverine flooding continues and the risk is for renewed flooding and for further catchments to go into flood with heavy rainfall for days on end and the chance of flash flooding adding to peaks down the river systems as well.

DATA


00Z GFS- Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

As you saw in the video with the GFS - there is good agreement across the board for the west to remain hot and dry and SA, once the low moves into NSW, will also turn dry through next week. The east and north continuing to see tropical rainfall, the wettest weather through NSW and QLD with renewed flooding. The rain eases across the weekend, though some modelling wants to keep the trough in place and spit the low off the coast, but one way or the other the lower confidence in forecasting is quite challenging to forecast, given the very soupy airmass that is in place and unable to exit, the rainfall could continue for some time to come beyond this severe weather event. So we must be prepared for that in the east and northeast.

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16Days

Very deep moisture profile to persist for a number of days, some respite for SA and VIC and possibly western and southern NSW through the weekend but the moisture comes right back to the southern and southeast areas of the nation. The west remains dry and hot with an easterly flow and seasonal weather for the tropics.

00z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More on this coming up at 9pm EDT.

A closer look in - it is a very concerning rainfall forecast for the southeast and east.

More on rainfall and the latest model data coming up after 9pm EDT. The Euro data is lagging tonight FYI.

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