Severe weather is expected to unfold in the coming days and persist for much of the weekend into the next week with flooding and severe thunderstorm outbreaks to dominate for many locations.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is hard to forecast with a non stop waves of low pressure working through deep humidity that will hang up for the coming 10 days. It appears that the heaviest of the rainfall may fall with this system through southern districts and over the eastern third of the state with that persistent onshore flow. Another trough next week may invigorate the existing trough with more widespread rainfall developing, but the coverage may be more scattered at this time. In any case, expect a lot of humid, unsettled weather with frequent periods of rain and severe weather potential throughout many locations. Drier air may sweep into the southwest and far west by the weekend which may ease conditions temporarily.
Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday
A high chance of thunderstorms over southern and southwest of the state with high levels of atmospheric moisture leading to a decent chance of severe thunderstorms leading to flash flooding. Garden variety pop up showers and storms from inland of the coast extending inland through to the remainder, less of a chance through Cape York. Storms in the south will continue overnight.
Flash Flood Risk Wednesday
Flash flooding is a high chance with thunderstorms through the southern and southwest of the state extending east during the evening. Showers training over the coast may produce flash flooding over the Sunshine Coast.
Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday
Damaging winds are possible with thunderstorms over the far southwest during the evening. The main risk is from heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.
DATA - You can find the GFS in the video for comparison.
12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days
The Euro is continuing with the wild weather for the next 3 days. What happens beyond then? So we have fine and hot weather for the west right into next week, the tropics are turning more active but routine weather anticipated and SA generally turns dry and warmer. The east is where the weather remains unsettled through the weekend and into next week with more rain and thunderstorms. Some of the other global models suggest another major rainfall event next week for VIC, NSW and QLD which could pose more flooding threats and really finish off harvest for many. That will be a feature of the update at 9pm.
12z Euro Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days
The values are elevated over large areas tonight but note the moisture does get pushed east, however the moisture hangs up over the eastern states and this is where rainfall and thunderstorm activity may remain in place right throughout the outlook period which may continue the flood threat. The tropics also very soupy with waves passing through with much better chance of more widespread rainfall. The west, under a decent period of dry air and hot weather, but the humidity could be drawn into the developing west coast trough next week leading to showers and thunderstorms developing.
12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the update at 9pm for more details
BE WEATHER AWARE! YOUR NUMBER WILL VARY! ONE STORM COULD DROP 50-60mm IN AN HOUR!
I am trying to keep the content as easy to navigate as possible as there is a lot going on. More at 9pm.