Let's get straight into it as we have a lot of weather to get through and we have documented it well here for the past week.
Lets take a loo
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is extensive over the state during the coming 72 hours with the peak of thunderstorm and rainfall potential during Thursday through Friday with rainfall totals to 100-200mm possible in some locations with rainfall rates of 50-70mm/hr possible with thunderstorms. A dangerous messy weather situation. With that said, your number will vary and may exceed or not reach the values shown below but this guide is for rainfall over the coming 2-3 days. The rain and thunderstorms contracts to the north during Saturday and a dry few days into early next week expected away from the tropics. Easterly winds return from this time next week with showers redeveloping along the coast and isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over inland areas which may increase beyond this period.
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Thunderstorms will continue tonight and into tomorrow with severe thunderstorms present in the flood warned areas at the moment. Further scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms a near certainty over a large region with locally heavy falls and damaging winds the main threats. A few isolated discrete thunderstorms may turn supercellular with tornadic activity and large/giant hail in the pink and purple zones but these are impossible to forecast ahead of time so pay attention to radar trends and warnings.
Flash Flood Risk Thursday
We have seen flash and riverine flooding already in the past 2 days and this continues tonight and once again on Thursday and into Friday. The main risk is for western and southern areas on Thursday and reaching the coast overnight into Friday.
Damaging Winds Risk Thursday
Same situation with damaging winds, with the risk reaching the coast later tomorrow night into Friday.
Large Hail Risk Thursday
Large hail is a moderate to high risk about the southwest districts and dependent upon whether we get a burst of sunshine through the morning to have the surface based instability verify.
Tornado Risk Thursday
A moderate risk of a few thunderstorms turning severe with a few tornados, but they will be hard to find still, however the risk is elevated and significant with this feature passing through Thursday afternoon.
Riverine Flood Risk
The flooding risk continues to be elevated over the coming 2-3 days so stay up to date with all the latest warnings, not just the thunderstorm warnings, as severe weather warnings will be expanded and altered to reflect risk across the state.
DATA - Analysis can be found in the video at the top.
GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days
GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
A closer look in - there are two events beyond this current system and so therefore your number may be eclipsed in the first system alone with thunderstorms. The wet pattern continues.
More details on all things rainfall and models coming up after 9pm EDT