We are starting to see the severe weather shift into the southeast areas of the state where an upper low is starting to move into the region tonight before it heads offshore tomorrow and deepens into a surface low offshore the NSW/QLD border, driving further heavy rainfall an strong winds through Tuesday into Wednesday.

The weather is forecast to remain unsettled tonight over the interior before that shifts eastwards with the trough also lifting out. The drier air is likely to surge in from the south over the coming days and will clear out the inland of the humid air and a sunny dry spell should unfold through to the weekend.

Over coastal areas, the showery onshore winds continue with a southeast to easterly flow with the widespread falls, mainly light to moderate totals expected. Over the north of the state scattered showers and thunderstorms near a tropical low will lead to heavy falls about Cape York and FNQ through the weekend and into next week making it the wettest part of the nation.

Overall, the pattern is starting to relax and many areas will start to return to seasonal conditions with a noticeable shift to cooler nights and clearer days with warm weather.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to remain heaviest over the southeast districts where flooding is possible over the coming 2 days and the falls should be easing from now for inland areas allowing for flooding of some regions to ease. The wettest weather once we lose the severe weather event over the southeast can be found in northern tropics. Trade winds feeding a trough will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms near a developing tropical. Some of the falls there could be heavy at times, especially through the weekend and into next week as the system begins to deepen. Otherwise scattered showers along the coast will become more isolated and lighter throughout the week. Inland areas should be dry from Wednesday right through the outlook period.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to remain active over the southern interior tonight on the backside of the upper low moving through the southeast districts. All modes of severe weather is possible but heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds seem to be of greatest concern. Thunderstorms should be absorbed closer to the coast on Tuesday but there could be a few lingering thunderstorms over southern inland areas.

Flash Flood Risk Next 2 Days

This is the area of highest concern for flash flooding during the coming 2 days. This has not deviated from this morning so be aware of the risks, some areas have already see 100-200mm from the event so far and an additional 100-200mm falls possible throughout the coming 2 days.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details can be found in the video but we are moving into a quieter period of weather following severe weather in the east and the slow easing of the widespread storm activity over the west. This period of about 2-3 weeks will be a period of transition and should be expected for many of our Ag Areas as we move through to the cooler season. The weather over the northern tropics is expected to be thinning out too.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

You can see the limited moisture over much of the nation through this period away from the west coast and over the east and up over the north. But as we move through the period, you can see that seasonal shift starting to take shape, the first real long period of dry weather and low rainfall totals for the nation as a whole in about 9 months.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - weather will begin to ease this week with a few showers and thunderstorms possible over the weekend across the inland. Some chance of showers turning heavy over the east coast again in the medium term. Heavy falls with the tropical low over Cape York for this week will make that the wettest part of the nation through the outlook

More coming up from 8am EDT. I will return to the rainfall and model posts from mid week once we get the severe weather event off the board.

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