That headlines the forecast for the state as violent weather is possible for the coming 24hrs with rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of those storms turning violent with destructive winds, tornado activity, giant hail and significant flash flooding.
The airmass does not change until the trough passes through and that is not expected until Friday evening, when a low over the southeast of the nation helps to kick the trough off the coast, clearing the humid air, and replacing it with a dry westerly.
The weekend, gorgeous with settled conditions over southern and central areas. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms over the northern tropics during the afternoon and evening.
From Sunday the flow pattern turns southerly and then southeasterly over the north of the state which will see showers increase for the North Tropical Coast with the chance of some moderate falls next week. The onshore wind flow then spreads further south along the coast with a trough deepening in the flow pattern during Tuesday.
If the trough sits closer to the coast, then showers and thunderstorms may increase and spread towards the eastern slopes of the GDR with moderate falls possible.
The next trough moving out of the west arrives here this time next week, increasing storms throughout much of the state.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 days
Uneven rainfall distribution is likely to continue tonight and through Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms through pockets of the state. The wet weather moves towards the coast later tomorrow and clears by Saturday. Most of the state dry through until next week apart from some tropical showers and storms. Then the flow pattern turns onshore easterly, humidity values rise and scattered showers return to the forecasts with the chance of thunderstorms over inland areas on and east of the divide. The next trough out of the west will arrive over the state from SA during this time next week increasing instability and rainfall chances returning to rural and remote areas.
Thunderstorm Forecast Friday
Thunderstorms are expected to turn severe and nasty during this evening and again during Friday, however the risk contracts east from the coast with all modes of severe weather possible. Once the dry line/trough passes through, the risk of severe weather is over. That will be ongoing from west to east during Friday and the event should resolve by evening over the southeast and Wide Bay.
Tornado Risk Friday
Similar region to today, the air aloft is expected to remain super unstable with upper dynamics and wind fields supportive of an isolated tornado or two possible IF supercell thunderstorms develop.
Flash Flooding Friday
A high risk of flash flooding exists with the strong thunderstorm activity, with exceptional rainfall rates possible with supercell thunderstorms and in thunderstorms training over the same region for a long duration. The risk eases from the west during the afternoon.
Large Hail Risk Friday
The large hail risk is still running very high with a deep trough passing through the region, still able to lift the deep moisture, the wind fields sending the convection into motion, rotating the updraft and supporting larger hail development. There is also the chance of giant hail closer to the coast as the trough moves through.
Damaging Winds Friday
Damaging winds are expected IF thunderstorms form a squall line and move towards the coast along the trough. If there are supercell thunderstorms, damaging straight line winds over 110km/h possible which will be capable of causing building and tree damage.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days
00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days
12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
As mentioned I need to have a moment to catch my breath ahead of another busy day tomorrow - so more weather coming up after 7am EDT.
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