QLD - SEVERE WEATHER CLEARING TONIGHT - DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY.

A loud and rough afternoon and evening over the southeast districts with severe thunderstorms ongoing as a trough finally moves through the state to move offshore overnight.


The forecast, much more benign from Saturday with a bright sunny sky for the entire state with drier air passing through seeing a more seasonal shift in conditions.


With the westerly winds back for the next few days, not much rainfall is expected, however the weather is likely to turn unsettled later next week with a trough moving in from NSW providing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to end on Saturday with not much expected for the next 5 days across the state as the high pressure comes in, the dry air also flushes out the rainfall chances. Over the north, an upper high keeping things quiet for now, but moisture will begin to increase from later next week with showers developing again. Another trough passing through later next week over southern and southeast districts could see showers and storms return to the region bringing the next chance of rainfall.

DAT

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Once we lose the severe thunderstorms over the east tonight, the weather turns sharply drier for QLD and most of northern NSW through the coming days. The southeast will see a shift into westerly winds and this clearing the moisture and instability east of the nation come the close of Saturday. A series of fronts passing over the nation commenced today, we saw a strong system pass through WA today, that is moving over southern SA on Saturday afternoon and into the southeast states Sunday. A follow up front passes through on Monday with the weather turning cooler with showery weather continuing. The weather over the eastern inland remaining dry and seasonal. A strong front will approach SWLD of WA during Monday night into Tuesday and bring a burst of showers and gusty winds, this system then passing rapidly into the southeast by Wednesday. A pre frontal trough may drag moisture down into the system from the northwest and provide a burst of showers and thunderstorms for central and eastern inland areas, and further rain along the southern coasts. At the end of the run we see another system pass through the nation which offers more rainfall for central and eastern parts of the nation. The north through this period, humid, unsettled over the tropics in the afternoon with the usual pop up storm. For tropical QLD it should be mostly dry.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The soupy air that has made it feel very humid is now in the process in moving east, and by the end of Saturday it will be replaced by another pulse of moisture coming in with a decaying front, but the lower levels will dry out. The moisture throughout the atmosphere becomes seasonal with a usual amount of dry air and moisture floating about but it is in the latter part of the period, the weather is expected to turn more humid nationwide, the GFS showing this in the medium term.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall in the east will ease off overnight with the southeast remaining damp off and on this week with a series of cold fronts passing through. The weather over the southwest also seeing a good supply of rainfall for October. Over the north, patchy falls to begin with but the coverage will improve as the moisture increases and seeps south, as per the GFS as well.

There are no high end rain events in the coming 7 days at this time.

A closer look.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to the video for more details.

More details coming up during Saturday morning. Have a great Friday night.

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