QLD - SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY.

The severe weather risk is approaching the state again from the west and south over the course of Friday. The trough that has brought severe weather to parts of SA, VIC and NSW today is on the approach during Friday and will run into a moist airmass and this will see showers and thunderstorms develop.


The atmospheric dynamics are supportive of severe thunderstorms with all modes of severe weather possible, the main risks over NSW, but it will creep into southern and southeast QLD during the afternoon.


Saturday will be another rough day of thunderstorms throughout the state, with severe weather possible over southern and southeast QLD extending north and west towards the central coast and interior. All modes of severe weather possible again.


By Sunday, the storm risk begins to settle down as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west. That will allow easterly winds to develop so showers develop along the QLD coast but inland areas dry out for a period.


Next week, deep moisture will be propelled south from the tropics and in the easterly wind regime through the nation. With inland troughs forming, the risk of thunderstorms are back on the cards, mainly west of the state during the first half of next week, but they will come across later next week.


Severe weather has been highlighted west of the state mid next week.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 days

The rainfall again as mentioned for many weeks is uneven, and I have to say that so you understand forecasting specific rainfall totals is very tricky. There is simply no skill in that. So the range is large for many areas but most places should at least see the lower number in your colour zone. The bulk of the wet weather is over the southeast this weekend and extending back to the central interior. The next batch of rainfall of significant statewide consequence is from this time next week with another batch of showers and storms. The tropics will sit under an upper high suppressing the rainfall chances however the east coast will see showers developing as easterly winds return. The easterly winds are a sign of the times.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing through southern and western QLD from Thursday's activity over the NT and SA which will creep eastwards. The storms will redevelop along the trough which will extend from northern NSW and through southern and western QLD and back into the NT. There is the risk of severe weather, all modes possible with large hail and damaging winds the main concern though the moisture profile is deep so heavy rainfall is also a risk over southeast inland areas of the state.

Large Hail Risk Friday

Large hail is a moderate to high risk with a small chance of giant hailstones over the far south of QLD extending into northeast NSW. Will review this risk in the morning.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Low end risk of flash flooding over parts of the Southeast inland of QLD where storms train over the same location for a period of time. Thunderstorms will drop heavy rainfall but storm motion is rather swift so they won't sit over one location for a long period.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

A broad risk of damaging wind gusts along and north/east of a trough moving through NSW and QLD with a high risk of damaging winds. Straight line winds are the main feature with thunderstorms. Storms may also bring damaging winds to parts of the NT during the afternoon and evening.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pressure pattern has been very low confidence pertaining to the low pressure system passing over the southeast states and low and behold, now the models have adjusted this feature north and as forecast the risk of severe weather now will be felt further north over Southeast SA and Victoria tonight and tomorrow. Gales also will develop over higher ground in NSW. Severe thunderstorms should weaken this evening, but there is the risk of all modes of severe weather through eastern SA and VIC into parts of NSW. Tomorrow the focus of severe shifts into NSW and QLD, particularly the storm corridor as outlined in the video. The weather settles by Sunday for a good chunk of the nation. But out west is where it turns unsettled and we start to see the next storm system begin to take shape. Deep moisture kicking off daily showers and thunderstorms over the northern half of the nation will begin to shift south and become absorbed into a trough coming out of WA. Model madness surrounds this system with the GFS diving the system south and the Euro passing it through as an open wave with storms spreading east across the nation under both scenarios. The coverage will move around. But the southwest of the nation will remain cool and dry through much of this week with not much in the way of rainfall, apart for onshore winds. The tropics, very active, with severe thunderstorms now starting to develop through parts of the NT and northern WA. More wet weather is expected in the medium term as well. Take away is, it is getting more humid, unsettled and thundery from Tuesday in SA and spreads east.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The deep moisture tells the story and so if you have vulnerable crops in the ground that does not respond to prolonged periods of high humidity, rainfall and temperatures that are seasonal or slightly above, then pay attention to the forecasts. The southwest of the nation sees less moisture near ridging. The deep tropics are very moist and this will continue to feed south into troughs moving around the nation as the high pressure belt moves south and east.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 days

The yellow shading is well removed from the tropics which suggests that where it rains, it will be very efficient rainfall. Heavy falls leading to flash flooding under storms is quite likely under the current guide. It may however offset the hail risk next week if the moisture runs up and down the atmosphere. Expect widespread cloud cover to form and this will start to ease the heat levels over northern and central Australia, but also retard the warming phase through Spring which has been very cool for southern states.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

A closer look in - that system next week is one to watch.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more

CMC 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more

More details on all things rainfall a little later this evening after 9pm EDT.



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