The trough responsible for severe weather is progressing slowly east over the coming 24 hours, there will be multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms ongoing today and tomorrow.

A number of locations have been belted today including Biloela, Warwick, Toowoomba and Dalby. This is storm season and this is a taste of what is to come during the next few months.

Over northern and western areas, it is hot, it is humid over the north but drier further west. A high moving into the southeast will ridge in and clear the conditions for the states south during the week with drier air, much more pleasant conditions can be expected for the remainder of this week.

For coastal areas, onshore winds over the north may produce a few showers and thunderstorms. Part of the trough reforms over central areas of the state and this could kick off another round of strong to severe storms during later this week and persist into the weekend.

So the seasonal shift is continuing as we move towards the Summer.

Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall is uneven in distribution right now over the southeast and eastern inland regions of the state, but the falls are widespread. Severe weather tomorrow continuing to move east with scattered falls over 30mm expected. The falls clear the south but they pick up over the central and northern areas as another trough develops and deepens later this week. The falls again hit and miss as you would know living in QLD. The coverage in rainfall may increase over the tropics next week with an upper trough while the south may stay mostly dry for now. This remains a low confidence forecast for now.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms ongoing tonight with some severe. These will flatten into an area of rain with moderate falls. Further thunderstorms may develop once again overnight and move towards the coast with some potential for severe weather once again early in the day. The storms peaking during the afternoon and evening as the trough moves through and over central areas with a northerly shift of the trough.

Large Hail Risk Tuesday

Large hail again a risk this evening and throughout coastal areas during Tuesday morning, the highest risk may be contracted further north over the Sunshine Coast and Wide Bay during the morning.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Damaging wind gusts have featured today in scattered pockets and will feature again in pockets along the trough as it moves through, especially along the immediate coast as the trough moves through and inland over Central QLD during the afternoon and evening.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

Flash flooding again a moderate risk with a pocket of high risk tonight and tomorrow through the Wide Bay to the Sunshine Coast. Isolated thunderstorms could produce heavy falls along the trough over Central QLD.


Euro 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Severe thunderstorms have broken out along a trough today and as expected bringing high impact weather, that will return again on Tuesday before moving offshore. The ridge over the southeast will continue to hold firm for much of this week, cradling weakening low pressure troughs passing through from WA bringing unsettled rounds of weather for NSW and QLD in particular. The odd low pressure system is expected to form offshore the NSW coast through this week, enhancing coastal showers. During the weekend, a large upper high is expected to form. On the periphery of that ridge you can see troughs producing showers and thunderstorms, one in the east, one over the west and over the north throughout the period. Under that ridge the southeast will warm up a bit this week too, even following the front passing over later this week, the winds are not cold as they have been in previous weeks. Out west, perhaps the last strong cold front of the season is coming through tomorrow before being shunted south of SA due to the blocking pattern in the east. Over the north the tropical easterly winds are likely to move further south in the coming 10 days and this is where you can see the moisture now running into the west coast trough into the medium term. All signals the weather is starting to shift further. The forecast overall is indicating a low confidence on rainfall spread and intensity across the nation.

Euro 00Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

As outlined in the video, you can point out the amount of moisture coming through in the sequence and not being reflected in the pattern at the surface in showers and thunderstorms. That is the power and suppression of the large scale upper high on GFS but other models are more generous in introducing rainfall back through the nation from next week. You can see the role of the low pressure in the Tasman Sea not only acting to block the passage of the frontal weather and troughs out of the west with deeper moisture and rainfall chances, but note the injection of dry air over the east and southeast inland through the period, as the system oscillates through the region. Meanwhile, deep moisture over WA will bring extensive cloud and rain areas for Tuesday which may run across the south of the nation before moving offshore the coast from Wednesday. The north, above average humidity values as expected with that playing out with more widespread falls further south throughout the north than usual, the early onset rainfall unfolds. And the east will see showers and thunderstorms with troughs from time to time, the moisture over QLD remains near seasonal for most of the period so seasonal rainfall expectations can be forecast for now. Much of the inland looks stable, dry and warm.

Euro 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

The GFS is keen on enhancing the upper ridge over the south and upper high over the north of the nation throughout this period, with the rainfall strictly coastal over the east and southeast, through the tropics and over in the west tomorrow with widespread falls. The major rainfall event for this week is over the in the west. The major storm outbreak is expected in QLD tonight and tomorrow and again over the weekend ahead of the next middle level trough coming out of SA. That leaves a good chunk of NSW, SA and VIC relatively dry with stable air in place, but I do think this forecast will resolve and rapidly shift wetter looking at the PW Values available on modelling tonight not being picked up by the heat lows at the surface. That to me makes no sense.

Let us have a closer look in.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to the video for more.

CFS 18z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks

Refer to the video for more.

More details on all things rainfall coming up from 9pm EDT

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