QLD - SEVERE STORMS EASE TONIGHT, BACK ON TUESDAY THEN DRIER AND STABLE. HOT OVER THE NORTH.

The active run of weather continues for the state as well forecast here over recent weeks. The storm season is well and truly living up to expectations, but we are looking at a little break in the wild weather from Wednesday.


Tonight, the severe thunderstorm warnings will start to expire after 8pm and the activity clear up after midnight. The southern districts should start to enjoy some drier and more stable air overnight.


Another round of showers and strong to severe storms can be expected during Tuesday afternoon, mainly on and north of a trough that will be progressing northeast through the state. The storms may bring all modes of severe weather.


However, Wednesday, we see potentially a storm free day for most of the state with that continuing into Thursday and Friday as a ridge begins to take hold of the state.


The tropics turning more unsettled and humid as that high sends the easterly winds further inland and pumps moisture back into the tropics. The upper high aloft should also break down assisting in increasing the rainfall chances.


With the onshore flow, the showers are likely to develop along the coast and over the weekend with a new trough emerging through NSW, this will bring back the next batch of showers and thunderstorms to southern and southeast districts.


Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Continuing to see the uneven distribution of rainfall throughout the next few days with scattered showers and thunderstorms about, but the coverage of rainfall will begin to decrease as we see upper air heights come up and become more stable. Over the tropical north, there is the chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing as the trade winds begin to increase in line with a broad scale easterly flow returning in line with the positive SAM. The next wave of showers and thunderstorms return to the southern and southeast areas by the weekend with the chance of severe thunderstorms again.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight will begin to weaken as we track towards midnight, though further middle level showers and thunderstorms are possible during the overnight hours with the trough moving north. Some of these storms will be noisy and strong, but unlikely to be severe. Tomorrow, another round of showers and thunderstorms will form along the coast with northeast winds shifting northwest to westerly. The drier air will clear the bulk of the thunderstorm activity offshore.

Large Hail Risk Tuesday Low to moderate risk of one or two storms throwing out large hail during the afternoon before clearing offshore.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Damaging winds immediately on the trough where thunderstorms ignite during the early afternoon and move northeast and east. The risk is lower than previous days.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

A low risk of flash flooding with thunderstorms throughout the Wide Bay and Burnett during Tuesday.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The surface pressure pattern is fairly similar to GFS in the short term for the nation, however where it differs is in the placement of the developing low along a trough that is passing over southeast SA and VIC into TAS later this week. That will have major implications on rainfall totals for the southeast, the low further south, less rainfall, low further north, more rainfall. Storms ongoing in the short term over QLD on Tuesday should clear off for the most part on Wednesday before the weather dries for a period. Storms return over QLD from the weekend. Over the north, the showers and storms to continue for much of this period and creep further south towards the SA and west into much of WA where showers and storms turn more numerous. For southeast and eastern Australia, this is where the next rainfall event will come from to kick off November. The west, cooler than normal weather for much of this week with showery weather then it turns drier by later this week, but those temperatures will struggle to get warm to hot for a while, especially over the SWLD.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The moisture creep will continue over the coming 24 hours, it is already running down the western NT border into a trough coming out of WA into SA. This will be the case tomorrow and expect to see more cloud and shower activity coming southeast into SA. The moisture will continue to pool over the northern half of the nation during the coming 10 days and multiple rainfall events are expected to form out of this event. The weather turning sharply humid over the coming week for the northern half of the nation as well. So farmers be aware that the moisture will be above average and long duration through these regions with rainfall and warm conditions.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Not much change from this morning, the issue in the short term to watch is the position and speed of a low developing on the trough mid to late week over SA into VIC and TAS. This will impact rainfall expectations during the coming period. The weather is expected to remain wet and humid over northern Australia with uneven distribution of rainfall. The west seeing showery weather over the coming few days before drier air returns. The positive SAM may develop in this week with showery periods returning for the east coast. But the confidence is low at the moment.

A closer look in - this will change.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more details

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 weeks

Refer to video for more details

More details coming up after 9pm EDT.




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