The weather has remained volatile for some this afternoon as the last trough passing through the southeast and central districts moves towards the coast.
Thunderstorms and showers tonight, with the potential for severe weather, will simmer down overnight as that drier air begins to push over the coast.
On Thursday, the southeast to easterly winds near the boundary over the inland may be enough instability to kick off storms over the Great Dividing Range and points immediately west through Darling Downs and Granite Belt. Some of storms may produce gusty winds. The process of thunderstorms track west continues into Friday and over the weekend with the trough kicking off showers and storms for the Channel Country and into NSW.
Along the coast, with the onshore winds persisting thanks to the high moving into the Tasman Sea, we could see showers become more widespread and with converging southeast to easterly trade winds, the rainfall that has been escaping parts of FNQ may be back on the cards to top up falls.
Central inland areas of the state should see dry and warm weather with the chance of a few showers here and there but likely to sit in between it all.
Over the tropics the weather may turn wetter next week as a trough deepens over the region in response to the approach of the MJO. Some models are getting more exited about this and some are not so that is something to watch.
In the disaster zones over the southeast areas, the weather is likely to be typical for March with onshore winds and showers, moderate falls and cooler conditions.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall expectations are forecast to come down from the very high highs of the past week which is welcome for the disaster zones, but in areas that have missed out from the bombardment of the low pressure dominance, well you remain mostly dry for now. But that said, there is the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning to inland areas extending from the NSW border west of the divide and northwards to the central and northern interior. Some of the isolated storms may produce heavy rainfall but again, focus on the word isolated. The more widespread rainfall is likely to be found over the east coast, mainly north of the Sunshine Coast to Thursday Island. Heavy falls in areas exposed to the trade winds and the east to southeast wind bearing can be expected. That will see some coastal areas closing in on 200-300mm of rainfall on the extreme coast. The tropics will also see a marked increase in rainfall across the week to two weeks with the emergence of the MJO approaching the northwest of the nation and the trough over the northern inland deepening in response to that, so more widespread showers and storms around the Gulf Country and into the Peninsula region is also likely.
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Thunderstorms are forecast to emerge west of the divide during the afternoon and evening with wind convergence and a weakening boundary nearby. Some of the storms could be gusty and heavy rainfall is possible from the Downs north through the Central Highlands and Coalfields and north to the Peninsula District. Showers and onshore winds will keep the storm focus inland with the air cooler and more stable. Thunderstorms over the tropics could also lead to some flash flooding but within seasonal expectations.
Damaging Winds Risk Thursday
Thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts on and west of the divide near wind convergence, during the afternoon and evening. The risk is analysed as being relatively low at this point in time.
DATA - Refer to video for more information relating to the short and medium term forecasts.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
The surface pressure pattern has begun to settle down with a high taking control of the weather picture over much of southern and western Australia. Drier air in the wake of the large low pressure system is expected to filter north over southern QLD with that airmass combining with the drier air to bring settled weather to many and cool starts on the next couple of days. For the west, we are seeing a hot airmass stay in place for the coming days and that will edge eastwards over the course of the next week so temperatures coming up for SA and into VIC and NSW with the humidity of the weekend which triggers the unsettled conditions over the eastern inland on by. The east coast seeing showery weather in onshore winds with no major lifting mechanism, so falls to remain light to moderate and no impact to flood zones. Heaviest rainfall and humidity will retreat to the tropics and this will be in line with the increase in showers and storms over the next week. We are still watching the MJO to see whether that gets it's act together to bring up rainfall chances over the northern third of the nation and whether moisture can seed troughs over the southern and western parts increasing the chance of Autumn Break conditions.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
The moisture content is expected to come down a notch for the east and southeast and through southern Australia and back into WA for the coming 2 days with drier and clearer skies. The humidity from QLD will likely move back south into NSW with that moisture then being eroded by drier warmer air coming in from SA and WA. So overall there is no long duration deep moisture layer that is set to bring about tropical weather that we have seen through Summer for large parts of the flood zones. Apart from low level moisture via onshore winds in the east, things are looking seasonal. Over northern Australia, the moisture also seasonal but we could see some of that moisture deepen and head south through the sub tropics and this if it comes south far enough, may be drawn into the jet stream bringing up the chances of cloud bands forming on top of the westerly wind belt try to move north in the medium term.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to the video analysis for more information
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to the video analysis for more information
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks
Refer to the video analysis for more information and the state by state fly around to bring your more context.
A closer look in - the numbers are more uneven in distribution throughout the region as we see no organised low pressure system at this time. But this could change quickly. More on that this evening.
More coming up in the models and all things rainfall update from 8pm EDT tonight.