QLD - SEVERE STORMS CONTRACTING EAST OVER THE COMING DAYS. DRY OVER THE INLAND.

The weather is starting to shift as we see drier southerly winds moving throughout the eastern inland of the continent. Finally the weather has shifted away from the persistent moisture onslaught via easterly winds. We are seeing the last of that play out over the coming 2 days as the trough moving northwards with the dry air runs into the humid air over QLD.


Severe thunderstorms are likely to emerge during Wednesday afternoon and evening with all modes of severe weather possible but more likely to see the damaging winds risk and flash flood risk being the main concern. Large hail is a low chance for the SE QLD region.


Thunderstorms will feature over the central and southern inland areas of the state to the end of the week before the trough moves west through QLD by the weekend. Another upper trough over the southwest will also kick off showers ad thunderstorms over the weekend with isolated moderate to heavy falls.


Next week we will see the thundery weather increase a little over the inland but no organised widespread severe weather is expected accompanied by rain events along the coast. That looks unlikely for now.


Along the coast, showers will continue in onshore winds, but the trade winds up north will bring in heavier falls. A high pressure system in the Tasman will increase the convergence over the coastal areas north of Mackay and stream showers will keep the moderate to locally heavy falls going for the coastal areas.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be scattered in nature but heavy where it falls with thunderstorms in the coming days. The airmass is so laden with moisture that the storms will lead to flash flooding where they form. The risk of flash flooding will move up the coast a tad on Thursday and then spread inland on Friday and over the weekend, but the coverage scattered and isolated heavy falls are possible. For coastal areas, onshore winds keeps the showers going but there will be breaks in the rainfall. The more frequent rainfall is likely up over the tropical and subtropical areas with onshore winds and showery weather to continue. So even though that the rainfall has eased in intensity, the weather is likely to remain damp for coastal areas and parts of the inland, still too far north of the drier airmass over southern Australia.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are likely to develop along a dry line what is expected to sweep through the SEQ region during the afternoon and contract northwards tomorrow night. Thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds. Large hail in this region is a low risk for now. Thunderstorms will return to coastal areas of QLD but isolated in nature. The same can be said for the Gulf Country and areas through FNQ and Cape York.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging winds are a high chance through the afternoon and evening with thunderstorms that start to refire along the dry line during the afternoon and evening.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Flash flooding is a moderate to high chance during the afternoon and evening as thunderstorms cluster in the SE of QLD and contract north in an organised fashion. The airmass is heavy laden with moisture and these will be high precipitation thunderstorms that will move through the region.



Large Hail Risk Wednesday

Low chance of large hail over the SE region with the larger updrafts that get going in the mid afternoon period.

DATA - Refer to video for more information on the short and the medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The latest data coming in off the GFS is amplifying the moisture a little over inland NSW and QLD as well as dipping it into the ACT and through northern VIC from the weekend into next week ahead of a larger trough coming out of SA mid next week. I am not so sure on that idea, but there will be showers and thunderstorms about. I am not convinced on the coverage being that widespread but will watch trends. For the east coast, onshore winds will drive showers onto the NSW and QLD coasts at times through this period. The tropics looking fairly unsettled with showers and storms increasing in coverage with the MJO starting to emerge in the Indian ocean and then rotating around the north of the nation at the end of the month potentially and into April. The west coast will see a few showers and thunderstorms as a result of the trough nearer the coastal areas this weekend before clearing inland but there may be better rainfall chances as we move into the medium term if moisture can be drawn out of a tropical feature running through the Indian Ocean.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Certainly seeing the drier air filter throughout much of the south and southeast with some areas to feel that more likely throughout the overnight periods with clearer skies and temperatures will be likely able to cool and heat more efficiently. So more typical weather for Autumn is likely. The weather over the northern tropics remaining seasonal with the humid air remaining in place. The east coast still impacted by heavy low level moisture but over the inland of the east, moisture levels are coming down, they will pick up again through the weekend and next week but nowhere near it has been. The weather out west very dry, the drier air being trapped the for days will likely continue for a while, but with a southerly change developing this weekend, low level moisture may return to coastal areas bringing cloud and drizzle patches following storms inland. If the MJO develops next week then we may see more moisture building up over the Indian Ocean which could be propelled across the nation. But it is conditional.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - refer to video for further analysis for those needing more information on what is next in terms of rainfall for the region.

More details coming up with all models and the rainfall information after 8pm EDT tonight. See what the next few weeks brings us. Also refer to the 6 week outlook for my take on that information and more.





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