We are enjoying the break from the daily severe thunderstorm warnings and heavy rainfall with high humidity. The ridge that is passing over southern Australia is ridging through to the southwest of the state, combining with the drier air to bring settled sunny weather with a westerly.

But it won't last long and as mentioned today multiple times through the updates, the weather is anticipated to turn more humid the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms starting to return in the forecast.

For now, a deepening trough and low pressure system for parts of southeast Australia is likely to stay right there, with the bulk of the heavier rainfall anticipated for NSW, VIC and SA.

The second low that develops through central parts of the nation is more likely to bring back widespread rainfall and thunderstorms with higher humidity next week, where the next chance of heavy rainfall and severe weather risks lay.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be hard to find during the coming few days. While there is the risk of a few thunderstorms over Cape York, the remainder of the state mostly dry away from the FNQ coast. Now mid week, the winds turn back into the east as a high passes to the south, so the showers redevelop over the coastal areas. Mainly light falls for now. Then a trough deepening over the southeast of the nation this weekend may introduce a better coverage of showers and storms this weekend, but the rainfall heaviest through the southeast states. The secondary low pressure system that develops next week over interior parts of the nation is expected to sweep east with rain and thunderstorms increasing for a good chunk of next week statewide. The tropics also expected to get more active as well.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Isolated thunderstorms possible about Cape York for Tuesday afternoon. No severe weather expected.

DATA - Looking at the GFS tonight - you can find more details in the video above.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The moisture builds up to excessive levels through the medium term and while the rainfall prognostics look lighter than previous runs, the moisture values scream higher rainfall potential, so this forecast will continue to evolve.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Excessive values return to the north and note the surge of moisture coming through WA and through the Coral Sea into QLD through the end of the month.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

A closer look in - these values will change.

More details on all things rainfall coming up after 9pm EDT. Also the 6 Week Outlook to be updated tomorrow as well.

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