The weather largely quiet for the southern, western and southeast inland where high pressure and dry air continues to lead to dry skies and hot temperatures, clearly the hotter weather the further west you go.

As you move towards the east coast north of Hervey Bay, the showers will develop in a weak onshore flow, leading to light falls for parts of the coast, moderate about the coast north of Bowen.

The storms and showers are set to return for much of the state from later this week and into the weekend, with a nasty batch of storms possible for Sunday, along a strong trough being pushed along by a cold front over the southeast. This may pose a threat to crops and property in southern and southeastern areas in particular.

The weather remaining unsettled next week with humid air sticking around, the onshore flow also freshening, bringing more showers to coastal areas, all of this combining as we get closer to Christmas, meaning a humid and soggy festive period is likely.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be hard to find over the coming 5 days across inland areas, where hot to very hot weather will persist for a good portion of this week. The showers will develop along the easterly flow, mainly isolated falls for parts of the coast, but overall the coverage below average for this time of year. As we move into the weekend, the coverage of rainfall turns more scattered throughout with hit and miss showers and storms. A more organised line of thunderstorms can be expected on Sunday into early next week as a trough moves through. That trough then gets stuck, and a period of humid and unsettled weather for large parts of the state can be expected for Christmas with locally heavy falls.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast about the Gulf Country and the Northwest where the moisture deepens and a sea breeze front moves southwards from the Gulf. No severe weather is expected at this time. A weak trough supporting inland showers and thunderstorms.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pressure pattern is typical summer for the week ahead in the short term, with no major severe weather events at this stage, but storms could pack a punch at times and I will assess those events as we go along. But the bottom line is no widespread rainfall is anticipated for at least the coming 10 days. The tropical airmass begins to descend from around Christmas and we should see an uptick in the number of showers and thunderstorms from then into early 2022.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The very dry air should be removed from the northern and central interior parts of the nation come the end of the week and in response, the showers and thunderstorms will return to these areas, resuming build up conditions. The eastern and southeast inland is expected to see variable weather, but more heat that what we have experienced so far this warm season, but as mentioned, the humidity will also increase, in hand as temperatures increase. The west staying mainly cooler through the period with dry air about and onshore winds. The nation will gradually become more humid as more of that monsoonal weather returns so January may turn wet IF that does indeed eventuate.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video

A closer look in - it may look patchy but I do suspect rainfall totals will increase over the course of the next few days - more details in the post at 9pm.

More coming up from 9pm EDT with a look at the rainfall across the modelling, the interest lay in the medium and longer term, plenty to talk about.

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