There will be rainfall however that will skirt the NSW border and could be moderate over extreme southern parts of the southeast Downs and towards the Great Dividing Range. Falls there could exceed 15mm there.

Otherwise, spitty showers coming through during this week will be connected to elevated precipitable water values but sadly the trigger for inland rainfall is further south and therefore the ridge takes hold and keeps the air stable.

That is normal for this time of year being it is the driest point of the year for QLD.

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall next 16 days - Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

You can see the light rainfall pushing through the eastern inland during the coming 2 days, some of that tending moderate through areas such as Stanthorpe southwards to NSW. Then a drier westerly wind becomes drier southwesterly before they ease as new high pressure moves in. The cycle looks to repeat itself as we track more moisture through the Indian Ocean into a new wave of fronts that will bring further rainfall to southwest and southern Australia next week. Temperatures look to remain above average.

00Z GFS Precipitable Water Values Anomalies next 16 days - Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

Even though the precipitable water anomalies are elevated the trigger is not there for widespread rainfall this time around. The moisture will lurk in the coming weeks but I do think a drier picture will persist under the upper ridge to the north.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

Rainfall looks lean with the best falls confined to the north tropical coast and then along the NSW border through this period. There may be better odds of rainfall returning towards the end of the month but for now it is a persistence forecast with a dominant westerly wind regime.

So the forecast is pretty benign but there is more hope in the Climate Outlook section in the blog, so even though it is dry now, heaps of information about the season ahead can be found here.

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