QLD - RAINFALL OVER THE NORTH TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEST THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS FOR THE COAST

The ingredients are there for widespread rainfall to develop for much of the state over the course of the weekend and into next week as a trough deepening through the tropics adopts a southwest track and moves the moisture and rainfall potential into the western districts.


At this time the weather is meant to be more active over the west, southwest and push into northeast SA and southern NT where the heaviest of the rainfall potential continues to be found.


Along the coast, onshore winds developing likely to lead to widespread showers developing for those exposed to the southeasterly flow. As the winds turn more easterly, this is where you will find the rainfall becoming a little more widespread for the coastal areas of QLD and this may start to penetrate towards the Great Dividing Range, where thunderstorms may also emerge in response.


The pattern very typical for this time of year along the coast, but inland areas should pay attention to the development of the weekend system which could bring above average late season rainfall.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be locally heavy over northern areas and I have outlined this in the latest tropical forecast. The wet weather emerging from this tropical expression is likely to see rainfall develop for the northwest and western districts. The rainfall could be locally heavy with thunderstorms. There is also the risk of severe thunderstorms through the west of the state. For the east, showers developing from tomorrow will extend up the entire coast and become more widespread as we move through the weekend and into next week as the flow turns easterly. Some of the rainfall could be heavy in the wetter spots exposed to the easterly pattern. The area that may miss out could be some parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Central Inland which could sit in between the weather events across the state but this is a low confidence forecast and likely to change.

MEDIUM TERM - April 27th - May 4th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Moisture over the southern parts of the nation will drive more rainfall with heavier falls for those areas exposed to the westerly flow. Given the elevated SSTs around Australia, this will play out with above average rainfall chances once again, as seen with the last system, many areas scored higher in rainfall totals than modelling suggested and this logic must be applied while we have the elevated SSTs in place. Northern and eastern areas will see near seasonal conditions with a few pockets getting lucky in the far northeast for further beneficial late season falls.

Moisture Spread

Moisture should be on by the east with the main rain event off the board. The next wave of unstable weather south of the nation will bring a band of cloud and rainfall to southern and southwest Australia. Onshore winds over the east will bring showers and cloud and lingering late season moisture will be found over northern areas of the nation with more late season falls.

Temperature Anomalies

The temperatures have now reverted back to warmer across the nation as the next rain event is now contained into the shorter term forecast. There looks to be a colder bias still for areas over southwest Australia with frontal weather and about the northeast of QLD with onshore winds. Warmer and more humid air over the Top End and parts of the Kimberly. The upper northwest winds will bring that warmer air into the southeast states.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pattern looks very much what you would expect through a period of transition. Please refer to the video for more information about the significant rainfall potential for Ag Areas over the coming 2 weeks and to put into context what you will be seeing across the data sets tonight.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies- Next 2 Weeks

The weather is certainly drying out over the course of the next 3-4 days with the most humid air reserved for the northeast tropics and across the east coast in onshore winds. The moisture is still forecast to move south and west through the east of the nation before we see a large moisture plume come ashore through WA and this races west ahead of a developing cold front over the southwest of the nation. This will merge with the moisture over the east to keep the rainfall chances going. This period looks to be quite volatile so expect to see more changes across southern and eastern Australia.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - once again your numbers will chop and change so be aware of that but multiple rainfall events are quite possible in the next two weeks. But in the short term, that is a great forecast for parts of the FNQ coast which needs that rain big time.

I am under the weather covering the weather and I will have the next update from 8am EDT, pending the voice it may just be a written update but more to come! A very busy weather period on the way.


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