The rain has been incredible these past few days with a number of days of flooding rainfall for central, southeast and eastern QLD. The weather is beginning to settle down, though we won't lose the showers and thunderstorms over the coming days, the severe weather threat is becoming quite low.

The weekend will see further showers and thunderstorms developing along a stalled surface boundary, this boundary will remain in the vicinity of southeast QLD and northeast NSW bringing the rainfall back to the flood zones.

Next week, showers and thunderstorms are increasing along this stalled boundary as yet another high pressure system takes the trough and pushes it west and then southwards. This will keep the humidity and rainfall/storm weather continuing I am afraid for many.

The weather looking wet right throughout the outlook next week where western areas may see less rainfall coverage at this time.

Tropical weather also expected to continue with heavy rainfall developing as a few waves pass through from east to west.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is decreasing in coverage but not totally clearing. With that said, showers and thunderstorms most afternoons and evening in the short term will still bring pockets of heavy rainfall but the widespread rainfall is not likely until next week. The trough next week will bring an increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy falls developing once again and lets flag that potential and I will update rainfall forecasts in greater detail tomorrow.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Decreasing instability will see a reduction in thunderstorm coverage, not totally clear weather, however some of the storms will still produce moderate rainfall and gusty winds at this time. Additional flood risks are possible given the saturated moisture profile of the soil.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Moderate to heavy rainfall in quick time from the normal thunderstorm activity will lead to flash flooding. The high risk of summer.

GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More details can be found in the video with the daily run through. Note the monsoonal activity increasing in the medium term which will dictate the rainfall forecasts nationwide and temperature spread through the nation.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture content remains very high over the northern and eastern parts of the nation though we are starting to see some reduction in the humidity values for the southern states if you were to believe the GFS this evening. I will have a full wrap on rainfall and modelling after 9pm EDT. But the moisture is likely to build up dramatically for northern and eastern Australia regardless of the modelling with the climate drivers in place and this will influence rainfall chances moving forward through to mid month. The early arrival of the monsoon is gathering pace and as mentioned, that will impact the rainfall forecasts beyond about 7 days.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

As mentioned in the video - going beyond 10 days rainfall is useless as the model madness continues surrounding the tropical low/monsoonal activity appearing on the charts. This means anything beyond 7 days carries a very low confidence. But I will show you the impact that the tropical weather has on the rainfall forecasts tomorrow when we compare side by side. For now the east is still expected to be wet and the north increasingly wet. The west remaining mostly dry for a while, but not for the coming 16 days.

More details on the model madness and rainfall coming up after 9pm EDT.

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