QLD - RAINFALL CHANCES CREEPING UP FROM THE WEEKEND.

Until then, it is dry and settled under high pressure, combining with that dry air. The drier air is quite cold seasonally and so this will contribute to a frost risk over southern areas of the state, but more likely over NSW through the coming days.


This weekend, the weather will finally shift, the westerly winds will shift into the southeast and then east, with cloud and moisture developing over the state. An upper level trough is also expected to develop over the central inland, combining with that moisture with showers and thunderstorms developing in random and scattered pockets from early next week.


The timing, distribution, placement, intensity etc is still yet to be determined with models yet to come into agreement, and that won't happen until there is a trough initialised in real time and then modelled in real time.


That is how it works in the warmer season - lets take a look at the shorter term

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is no existent for the coming 4-5 days at least with a milder few days on the way. The wind profile is key to the rainfall returning and we should see that with the SAM turning positive over the coming weekend into next week, this allowing the easterly winds back. Moisture streaming in on top of a high into the trough sitting over central and southern QLD, this will see showers and thunderstorms break out. The coverage of this rainfall is still yet to be determined and I can be more specific as we get closer, and I suspect that may take until Saturday. Note the rainfall spread is broad and this is to factor the west/east movement of the trough and where it sets up so this forecast carries a low confidence at this time.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pattern is dry for much of the nation over the coming 5 days, with a large centre of high pressure coming in, combining with the dry air to bring clear skies. Frost will be widespread and could be heavy over the southern and eastern inland of the nation Wednesday and Thursday morning. Some frosts could be heavy. Then warming up through the week, away from the southeast where onshore winds will continue the shower coverage and cloud. Next week the pattern turns and in line with the GFS, the majority of wet weather begins over the eastern seaboard and inland of NSW and QLD with another trough developing over the southwest with showers and thunderstorms about. All of this weather is expected to converge through the Central parts of the nation and then spread throughout the eastern and southern inland.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 days

Moisture is limited through the nation through until the weekend as high pressure and dry trapped under the high dominates for the rest of the week. The moisture will return via the easterly winds and the Indian Ocean during the weekend and next week. The wet weather will be associated with where the moisture moves and that looks more likely through the eastern inland of the nation and over the southwest to start with and as you can see, travel eastwards from there on. Refer to the GFS to see the possible wetter outcomes in the video.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Next 10 days

Good agreement between GFS and the Euro with the flow pattern over the nation resulting in dry weather nationwide until the weekend or early next week when we see the showers return over the east and with a trough over the southwest with thundery showers possible. Like GFS the trough out west looks to merge with the trough in the east with the chance of rainfall coming up over the southern and eastern states. Refer to the GFS in the video to compare and I am siding with the GFS solution at this time.

GFS 2 Week Rainfall - I will have more on the models later on this evening to contrast and compare on all things rainfall nationwide.

More after 9pm




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