QLD - RAIN TENDS TO SHOWERS ABOUT THE COAST TONIGHT AND CLEARS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OVERVIEW

Rainfall is finally expected to ease over the coast tonight but showers will continue throughout the remainder of the week as moisture and onshore winds continue, but the rainfall coverage nowhere near as widespread or heavy.


A high is nosing into the western interior tonight and drier air is also coming through as well which is allowing rainfall totals to drop away for the coming week or so.


SHORT TERM

A sharp trough is forecast to move eastwards overnight and into Wednesday and this will take the moisture offshore and kick it northwards. The rainfall will ease but the cloud cover could linger for sometime over parts of the east in these onshore winds.


At this stage the weather is expected to be mostly dry for inland areas. However modelling is supporting the return of rain over the southern and southeast inland during the early part of next week ahead of a cold front moving in and lifting large areas of moisture and this bringing the chance of more above average rainfall.


The remainder of the inland is forecast to remain dry for now.


LONG TERM

There are indications that more typical frontal weather will begin to dominate the synoptic pattern through the early part of next week with showery weather returning to SWLD of WA initially with moderate falls this weekend and then that front moving through the southeast early next week helping to knock the block out.


There is evidence that further westerly winds and showery fronts will continue to impact southern Australia through mid month and into the latter part of the month.


With some luck this will dry out the eastern and northern parts of the nation. But, there is also some modelling that keeps the moisture in place over the eastern inland of the nation which could result in an other rain band forming on a stronger trough in the medium term as well.


AREAS TO WATCH

The SAM mode over the Southern Ocean, some signals we see that tending more neutral as we go through the back half of the month and that may support more seasonal weather across the nation, with a low severe weather risk.


Watch the moisture over the Indian Ocean as well, that will come back into play during the back half of the month as well, whether that can influence moisture being fed into cold fronts remains to be seen.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - TUESDAY 5TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is chiefly coastal now and it is expected to remain moderate tonight but clearing eastwards during Wednesday. Some showery periods are expected to continue as the onshore winds persist through the weekend. There is a small chance of a trough deepening leading to widespread showers and thunder about the Gold Coast but the risk is low. Rain clears statewide early next week with ridging in place and a return to more typical weather for this time of year. A low signal for rainfall to develop ahead of another trough working through NSW is present and that could see the moisture left over from the current event be lifted into another batch of rainfall. The rainfall reflects the rainfall potential tonight and most of it is falling now.

Rainfall will begin to clear eastwards and most of this falls during the coming 24hrs. Watching the forecasts over the southern inland very closely too.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

July 12-19th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Probably the biggest shift has been in the removal of that dry bias on all models this evening across the nation but no strong pull to either above and or below average rainfall across the nation highlights the uncertainty out there about the moisture returning through the jet stream and the impacts of frontal weather over the south. Seasonal weather over the north and east.

Temperature Anomalies

The cooler bias continues for large areas of the nation, especially northern Australia which will still be recovering from the cold outbreak of the past 2 weeks and more cloud and rainfall spreading through the south with cold fronts will reinforce the cooler and drier airmass over the region. Seasonal weather generally back west with cold fronts and a northwest flow.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for the short- and medium-term breakdown of the daily weather pattern.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture continues to be shunted off the coast and clears with a trough this evening. There will be onshore winds and moisture ongoing for the NSW coast where rainfall could be torrential at times with the moisture profile in place. Dry air most elsewhere through the inland supporting the widespread frost under clear skies tonight. Modest moisture through WA in the coming days ramps up this weekend with a strong cold front, that will be the first easterly moving moisture in about a fortnight to have rainfall attached to it for the southern parts of the nation. The westerly wind regime continues through the period but no great source of moisture is drawn in on this particular run but as per the video it is lurking over northwest of Australia.


00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the rainfall over the east is easing, and once we lose the upper low it does look much drier now through the coming 10 days or, so which is welcome news for many.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.


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