QLD - RAIN SPREADING THROUGH THE SOUTH FRIDAY CLEARING SATURDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE

The run of colder weather to kick off Winter is set to continue for the sunshine state but also is the run of further rainfall impacting inland areas, at a time where rainfall should be much more limited as we move into the traditional drier season for the state.


A broad cloud band has been drifting through today with the bulk of the rainfall found along the back side of the cloud band, that rainfall to become more widespread overnight and into Friday, with a cold front approaching the southeast of the country.


Widespread cold rain and cloudy skies should move through the southern third of the state and the better rainfall totals will be found mainly south of a line from Birdsville to Charleville to Rainbow Beach. The bulk of the rain should begin to clear the far west later Friday and ease over the east coast from Saturday.


Next week, it looks really quiet with a ridge over the state and an upper ridge planted over the tropics, with the two combining to bring widespread fine weather, cool to cold nights and fine mild days, though temperatures could be still below average most days thanks to the persistent weather pattern and southwest to westerly winds.


The next rainfall event may be found in the medium term for much of the state with a drier period developing, though with moisture increasing north and northwest of the nation, it is only a matter of time before the next cloud band forms and brings rainfall chances up.


Let's take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be widespread over the southern third of the state with some moderate falls running along the NSW border with 10-20mm in a few locations. The rainfall should begin to clear out from the latter part of tomorrow over inland areas in the west then overnight for the southern inland before clearing the coast from Saturday. The bulk of the following 7 days looks dry for most areas. There may be some weak cloud bands passing through the jet stream but with the ridge in place over the region, this will keep rainfall chances low for now. Further widespread rainfall chances are on offer into the medium term with more moisture streaming through the jet stream and into the eastern inland. But also watching moisture over the NT and this could spread southeast into the northern interior and western interior.

A lot of what you see here is likely to fall in the coming 36hrs. The rainfall could be heavier through the NSW border. Rainfall clears from the far west during the late afternoon and evening and clears the southeast coast on the weekend, then things turn dry Sunday and into much of next week. Rainfall under the band should be gentle but persistent.

MEDIUM TERM

June 9th-16th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The rainfall anomalies are increasing for much of the west of the nation, once again in line with the developing trough offshore the west coast and the chance for widespread rainfall to develop over the central and northern interior areas of WA. Some of this could drift into the northern tropics and then spreading southeast into the Central Interior. Near seasonal expectations are forecast elsewhere.

Temperature Anomalies

The cooler bias across the nation is expected to continue for the first half of this month and this is thanks to the persistent southerly flow over the eastern and southeast parts of the nation, being propelled along the northern face of high pressure and in combination with cloud drifting through the jet stream. Some moderation in the cooler weather over the southwest is possible towards the end of the run.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More information in the video, so make sure you take a look at that for a broader understanding of the weather in the short and medium term. I will mention here again that the short-term forecast is carrying a high level of confidence but the medium term, very poor confidence and once we see the high-pressure system building over the Bight then we can more actively forecast with a degree of confidence the impacts on the southeast in terms of the southwest flow with showers and the wet weather developing along the west coast.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

I just want to point out that the short term carries a higher confidence in forecasting with a lot of moisture spreading through the eastern interior with the trough and jet stream. A series of cold fronts over the southeast states propelling a large amount of cold air northwards. The rest of the nation looking seasonal, but watching with interest the weather over in the west and north where moisture values are expected to increase throughout the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 8 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the modelling is of low confidence from next week away from the southeast states. This will change. More confidence builds into the forecast when we get the high-pressure system sitting over the Bight by Sunday.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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