QLD - RAIN ENDING OVER THE SOUTH THIS MORNING - DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE STATE MID WEEK.

A brief spell of rainfall through the inland of QLD overnight and this morning is moving east with the weather trending more dry as high pressure noses in from mid this week.


A colder southerly surge is on the way from NSW today and the temperatures are expected to come down over the coming days with the surge washing out somewhere over central QLD.


Satellite Imagery

A cloud band is moving through the southern and central regions with patchy rainfall and there have been a few storms overnight. All of that is moving east today and drier air is clearing skies over the west but also lowering temperatures as that moves north and east today.

Rainfall to 7am

Goondiwindi recorded 10mm overnight with light falls of 1-6mm elsewhere through the southern inland. The rainfall is moving east and becoming fine and mostly sunny south and west of the trough as it moves east today.


The weather relatively benign until about the weekend, when the winds turn into the northeast and east bringing in moisture and coastal showers. The showers could be moderate over parts of FNQ.


Next week, the moisture is expected to pool over inland areas of QLD and the NT, there will be another surge of moisture coming through WA into SA. All we need is an upper trough and inland rainfall will likely break out, pinning down where is very hard, and there is no skill in forecasting that specifically ahead of time.


Something to watch for now


12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The last of the waves is passing through the southeast states today and a drier and colder airmass can be seen moving through SA this morning, that will also move east and north this morning. The weather will remain cold and cloudy through the southeast states for the next couple of days, though inland areas of NSW, QLD and SA should see clearer weather as will the east coast. A high moving over WA will move over southern parts of the nation, that bringing a spell of settled weather from later this week into the weekend. Fine and hot over the north with humidity values rising dramatically as the winds veer northeast. Then we watch frontal weather come back for the west of the nation, that progressing east into the medium term bringing up rainfall chances with the chance of another northwest cloud band developing.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

The bulk of the wet weather coming during the next 12 hours but then dry for a while. The next batch of rainfall comes through on the east coast with the winds turning easterly and that will bring moisture back through the inland. There might be more widespread rainfall developing mid month from the west.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The elevated PW values are expected to be replaced by colder drier air today, with that drier surge sweeping through NSW and QLD by later today and clearing out the humidity by tomorrow. The drier air will continue to dominate inland areas with low level moisture keeping the low cloud in place for much of the southeast. Drier air and stable northwest winds will clear skies over the southeast with the next surge of moisture coming in ahead of the weekend front, producing widespread rainfall for WA. That moisture then moves eastwards over next week with light rainfall for now, but note the dry air is hard to find mid month increasing inland rainfall chances mid month.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Very good agreement with the modelling this morning, the last wave passing through this morning and tending to clear the southeast by Wednesday. A high ridging in will then start to clear out the southeast and eastern inland with drier and sunnier weather expected this weekend. Then next week the frontal weather from WA will spread into the eastern states with that being the chance for more widespread light follow up rainfall from SA through southeastern inland parts of the nation. At the same time moisture will be building up over the northeast inland of Australia and all we need is an upper feature to lift that into rainfall, as that moisture will be stuck for a while under the current synoptic guidance.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall has mostly fallen this morning, and this model depicts a lot of the rainfall that fell overnight and during this morning. So essentially dry weather for inland areas until next week. Coastal showers for SA, VIC and eastern NSW will be light and patchy for the coming 5 days before we have another batch of rain approaching during this time next week. But then by next week while the fronts are trying to approach the southeast of the nation, the winds will be easterly over the QLD coast and this will bring back showery weather to the east coast.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The moisture is moving out this morning and will clear the eastern inland and off the east coast by Wednesday with a dry southerly surge moving in. That dry air will clear the cloud over inland areas, but low level moisture over the southeast states will keep cloud going the further south you are until about Thursday. The weather is resetting this week, and with a high coming through the southern states, the moisture will also reset. Another cloud band develops from the west this weekend and moisture begins to increase over the eastern inland in easterly winds. That like the GFS, then increases the rainfall chances for the nation from mid month, with the western parts of the nation seeing wet weather from as early as this week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is dropping away as we are in between long waves and high pressure should dominate the next 5 days or so. Perhaps some light rainfall returning from early next week at the earliest for the southeast states. Showers may developing for the east coast in onshore winds with the falls remaining light. Moisture builds up next week with temperatures increasing over inland areas. That will be next chance to see rainfall increase over inland areas. But for coastal areas from Cairns through to Hervey Bay, showery weather in humid easterly winds may be back!



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