QLD - RAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE EASING THIS WEEKEND. WARM TO VERY WARM AUGUST WEATHER.

OVERVIEW

A few showers about the southern and southeast inland tonight will clear with a new ridge building over the state. The coming Tuesday and Wednesday looking pretty good statewide, just a few showers about the northern tropical coastal areas in onshore winds. But conditions looking relatively fine and warm for this time of year.


A strong wave of low pressure is expected to pass from west to east across the country, and has drawn in moisture from the Indian Ocean and we have moisture being drawn in over the state via the upper level east or northeast winds across the state.


Showers will redevelop for many inland areas from Thursday and persist into Friday, maybe Saturday before conditions dry out again later in the weekend.


A complex pattern with much of southern QLD on the edge of the wettest weather.


SHORT TERM

The widespread rainfall that comes in later this week is associated with very deep moisture that has emerged via the jet stream, and with unstable air nearby, extensive cloud cover is forecast to form in response to this and also in response to the tightening thermal gradient that will lay across the state.


Showers and the chance of thunderstorms developing from Thursday and continuing Friday and through Saturday will be the main window of rainfall opportunity this week.


The heaviest of the rainfall is forecast to be found in NSW where the ingredients converge for severe weather potential.


LONG TERM/AREAS TO WATCH

The front and wave of low pressure moves into the Tasman by the weekend but the air aloft may still be unstable for further showery periods to exist over the southeast. The rest of the nation quiet across the weekend with severe weather risks resolving.


A new ridge will move over the southeast and eastern inland as we move into the new working week. A high pressure ridge will be weak and pass to the east, and over the interior, the lingering moisture will be able then move into the next wave of frontal weather impacting WA, then lifting rainfall chances once again as we move into the middle of next week across SA and possibly into the southeast inland as we move to the end of the period.


The heaviest of the rainfall and cloud cover is forecast to be over the western interior initially and it will be up to the cold front activity moving from west to east to determine how widespread the rainfall becomes for SA, VIC and NSW.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - MONDAY 1ST AUGUST 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The little bit of rain left over from the first trough is now clearing the southeast and east coastal areas south of Gladstone and conditions resuming fine tonight and tomorrow with temperatures after a cool start, warming up above the average. It is that warmth combined with the moisture and the approach of low pressure that will see showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast packages as we move into the back half of the week. The rainfall likely much more persistent and heavier the further south you go through the state and mainly falling inland. Some model conjecture surrounding whether we see the rainfall linger throughout the weekend with the trough or does it move offshore more rapidly. Moisture is likely to rebuild through next week, but the main lifting mechanisms are forecast to be found over in WA and SA.

Rainfall numbers continue to fluctuate from run to run, but generally, moderate rainfall becoming widespread from Thursday into Friday, possibly Saturday before the weather eases during Sunday at this stage. The moisture as mentioned, will linger as we move throughout the coming weekend and into next week.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

AUGUST 8TH-15TH 2022

Moisture Watch

Moisture continues to spread throughout the nation and all areas of the country should be impacted by cloud cover, higher low level moisture values over the northern and eastern areas of the country. The issue for rainfall to increase across the eastern and northern areas will be whether we see low pressure interact with the moisture to lead to widespread areas of rainfall. Frontal weather sweeping across the country, also leading to moisture spreading from west to east through the jet stream, offering elevated rainfall chances.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are starting to increase once again over the western and southwestern parts of the nation with the moisture spreading throughout the central and southeastern areas of the nation. The moisture over the northern tropics is likely to increase too via the northeasterly winds. The rainfall is expected to increase in coverage throughout the interior and could sweep into the southeast inland with frontal weather continuing to bring near seasonal rainfall for southern Australia, likely to tap into some of that moisture over the interior and spread it south and southeast.

Temperature Anomalies

Cooler than normal weather over the southern half of the nation with a significant amount of cloud cover passing through from northwest to south and southeast with moderate rainfall chances starting to emerge again for the interior of the nation. The temperatures over the northern areas of the nation are expected to remain elevated and no change to the guidance at this time. Humidity values may start to increase throughout the coming weeks too.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and context for all the data sets that you will see here tonight and behind all your app forecasts that will diverge and change.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further information and context around all the major weather systems as we are looking at 3-4 on the latest GFS for the coming 2 weeks. This will chop and change.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further information on the developing moisture profile of note in the short and medium term. Some very strong signals for near record values developing through the jet stream as well into the middle of the month.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - rainfall looks to be more extensive over the south and west of the country but keep a very close eye on the moisture that is building to well above average levels over northern Australia which will lift the heat levels but may also feed troughs moving through the region into the medium range. So I do expect more rainfall for inland areas than what is being shown here by mid month.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall

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