QLD - RAIN AREAS INCREASING WITH HEAVY FALLS DEVELOPING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. CLEARS MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND SHORT TERM

It is all about the rain event spreading through the state during the coming 2-4 days with the potential for the heaviest July rainfall in about 25 years in some locations on current guide, possibly heavier. The trough that lay over the central and northwest inland that extends into the southeast will be the primary source of rainfall spreading through the interior and anywhere south of this trough will see little rainfall and just cloud.


An upper low over inland NSW may push north and strengthen the trough over the state leading to the rainfall becoming heavy enough to cause flash flooding and possibly riverine flooding.


Conditions are forecast to ease over the weekend for the western and central inland and the heavy rainfall will likely persist along the coast into Monday before clearing.


Next week, the weather looks rather settled with dry air and higher pressure in the region with the rainfall focus shifting back to the south with the westerly wind belt resuming it’s run of dominance over the country.


LONG TERM

The frontal weather should resume over Southern Australia from next week, with the heavier impacts being felt over SWLD of WA through the back half of next week, with moderate rainfall possible with that feature, bringing an end to the dry spell for most areas.


The rainfall is expected to be widespread across the west of the nation until we see that spread further east to impact southern areas of SA and then into the southeast inland across VIC and maybe southern NSW. Moisture dependent, the rain bands may increase in coverage in future modelling so will be watching the Indian Ocean closely.


Otherwise the rest of the north and east of the nation is expected to clear with drier air surging northwards with high pressure coming in from the west.


AREAS TO WATCH

The focus of the weather shifts to the west of the nation next week, how much moisture can be drawn into the jet stream and will this bring back the wet weather back into the southern and southeastern parts of the nation breaking the drier spell of the recent week or two.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - WEDNESDAY 29TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Heavy rainfall is expected to develop from the NT interior and stretch through the Northwest Inland and then through the Central West and diving into the southeast and eastern inland with some areas copping a drenching in what is the traditional driest time of the year. This weather is a symptom of what is to play out for the state through Spring, but it is early this year. Rainfall will contract into the east and southeast during the weekend and clear offshore next week. Some areas along the coast could see 200mm+ from the event and scattered falls of 50mm plus over the course of the next few days. Dry weather should resume throughout much of the eastern inland during the following week with rainfall chances returning to southern areas with the Wintertime westerly winds returning.

The rainfall through the central and northern inland is of very high levels, decile 8-10 for this time of year. There may be some flooding issues if these falls do verify, with the bulk of this falling from Thursday to Monday, but some models keep the rain going along the coastal areas between Mackay and Hervey Bay and adjacent inland during Monday and Tuesday before clearing.

A closer look at that bullseye of rainfall according to the data sets and smoothing that out to give you this curated forecast.

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH - QLD

The risk zone for severe weather is unchanged from overnight with the trough over the interior driving up the chance of moderate to heavy rainfall and the coverage of that heavy rainfall could see riverine flooding develop. Also with the high rainfall rates, flash flooding is also a risk. The risk of riverine flooding is highest along the QLD coast from the Mackay region southwards to about the Sunshine Coast at this time. The focus of the riverine flooding builds later in the weekend into early next week along the coast.

RIVERINE FLOOD RISK - QLD

A low risk of riverine flooding for the inland and a moderate to high chance along some of the coastal catchments in response to heavy rainfall developing near a stationary trough from the weekend and into next week.

FLASH FLOOD RISK - QLD

Pockets of heavy rainfall is expected to feature along a sharp surface trough combining with deep moisture and this is leading to widespread rain but embedded in that will be some heavier convection leading to those locally intense rainfall rates. A moderate to high risk of this unfolding throughout the interior during Friday through Saturday and along the coast from Saturday through Tuesday. Clearance of the severe weather risk dependent on the movement of the trough to the east which remains up for debate looking at modelling this morning.

DATA - Refer to the video for further context and support for the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further context. There is a lot of complexity and that is causing a lot of shifting around in the rainfall totals from run to run in the east. Find out more about what you may expect in the video at the top of the page. The overall trend for the west is quiet before the pattern flips next week.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture is largely unchanged from overnight and this morning, the deep moisture profile over the north and east will be full realised beyond the thick high cloud that has been covering large areas of the nation today, with a middle and lower-level deck of cloud likely to develop from tomorrow as a stronger forcing mechanism in the upper low meets the moisture, and then the ingredients combine to produce heavy rainfall potential for the east. The moisture will take a while to sweep out to the east but once it does, we will see the moisture return over western areas of the nation, chiefly in the south with frontal weather helping to bring back rainfall and more typical weather for this time of year after a dry spell. That moisture will reach the south and southeast later next week into the following weekend with follow up fronts to come over the south and west.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - widespread rainfall is expected to form along a trough that extends from the NT through QLD on Thursday and remains slow moving through Friday into the weekend and possibly persisting next week with some areas recording record July rainfall. The rain eases from mid to late next week as a more traditional weather pattern resumes.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall and there is lots to discuss.




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