QLD - RAIN AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST CLEARING EASTWARDS WITH DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN LATE WEEK.

OVERVIEW

Areas of rain and thunder continues for the east coast and adjacent inland this evening and for Tuesday with the band as forecast last week, slowly moving towards the east with the rain ending by later Tuesday. Some areas in that time between now and then are forecast to see moderate to heavy dry season falls, some of the heaviest in about 40 years.


The rainfall clearing from mid-week leads us into a drier spell for the remainder of the week into the weekend.


But with the moisture lurking so close to the coast and over the north, we may start to see more widespread rainfall developing next week.


SHORT TERM

So, it is all about this large-scale rain band moving to the east with a broad cloud band slowly moving out and high pressure moving in with drier air over the inland.


Inland areas can expect mainly dry weather for the coming 10 days. It is the moisture and low-pressure troughs over the east coast and offshore that will keep the rainfall chances going for a while this week before clearing.


However, there is uncertainty surrounding the risk of rainfall returning with another trough forming next week and how much moisture can be pulled back into this feature. At this time, more rainfall is expected along the coast which may be moderate to heavy. That will be reviewed closely through the week as we get this current system off the board.


LONG TERM

Watching the risk of further low pressure developing offshore QLD and NSW with this persistent signal of rainfall hugging the coast. All the ingredients are seemingly there, not clearing away as what was being modelled say a day ago, so we must be on the lookout for further rain over the east coast of the country.


That means that the drier bias would continue over the interior, from the west of QLD/NSW through northern VIC, SA and over much of the interior and back to the west away from the SWLD. This pattern would support the suppression of the Winter Westerly regime and lead to drier than normal weather for large parts of the south.


AREAS TO WATCH

Can the SAM turn back towards negative values and the positive phase that is currently underway ease, helping to dry out the east and end the risk of more above average rainfall.


Will the moisture content over the Indian Ocean begin to influence frontal weather into the medium term over the SWLD of WA? Signals are that it may be the case of a gradual increase in the rainfall spread for WA that may translate eastwards.


But some areas over southern Australia, especially SA, could go rain free for the coming 2-3 weeks bucking the trend of all the guidance that has been available this year.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - MONDAY 4TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be slow moving and contract to the east as a trough lifts off the coast. Moderate to heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding continues tonight and into Tuesday before clearing eastwards. But by then we could see many areas sitting well above the July average. There looks to be no rainfall over far western and southern areas at this time, but there is evidence another trough could approach through the weekend and into next week which may lift up the chances of rainfall once again along the coast and ranges. Some areas could get another months' worth of rainfall next week on top of what is shown here.

A closer look at the areas of heavy rainfall along the coast and you can see the placement of the moisture in relation to the low pressure leading to a very tight rainfall gradient. That will contract further east in the coming days.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

July 11-18th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The wet bias hanging on over the east coast with troughing in the region and the moisture profile deeper in the easterly flow of this week, lagging into this period. The drier signal is now starting to strengthen over the southern parts of the nation as the SAM struggles to get back to neutral territory meaning that frontal weather is retarded to the south.

Temperature Anomalies

Not a whole lot of change from yesterday though a warmer tongue of air could be established over inland WA as a northwest flow becomes persistent ahead of frontal weather further to the south over the SWLD. Colder signal continues for much of the east and north as the persistent cooler air is trapped under ridging and the landmass slowly recovers from the week of cloud and rain we have experienced. Cloudy with wetter weather potential in the east could bring temperatures to near seasonal.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information and to cut down your reading time.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details are found in the video at the top of the page with a lot of weather in the short term and possibly once again this weekend in the east and far west.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

High amplitude pattern means very high levels of moisture and dry air with that being drawn around a large low-pressure system in the upper levels in the east. The drier air will keep the west dry and the east will remain wet with excessive rainfall reflecting the excessive moisture load that is present. The weather will slowly mix out over the coming week and the airmass becoming less humid over the east and less dry of the west and that will bring more settled and seasonal conditions across the nation. But the moisture does look to hang on over the east for now.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - exceptional rainfall over the east continues tonight and tomorrow but generally clears from Wednesday. There may be another burst of rainfall this weekend with another trough but that could favor the southeast more than anywhere else. The rest of the state should be dry for now.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.





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