The spring shift continues for QLD, with many hints that spring may have sprung early for the nation with the tropics waking up a bit, the subtropics seeing some spring rainfall, the inland warming up and the potential for airmasses clashing over the eastern inland lifting inland rainfall chances as well, with a sharp drop in temperatures. That is all expected in one week of weather.
Thunderstorms continue for parts of QLD tonight, and the risk extends into Tuesday before lifting out with a high bringing clearance during mid week. Some of the thunderstorms could be heavy and gusty over the inland tonight IF they form, tomorrow the thunderstorms will be embedded in thick cloud and will enhance rainfall rates. No severe weather likely from the thunderstorms at this time.
Lets see if I can answer some of your weather questions in the forecast below.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall is expected to become widespread over central and northern coastal QLD with a trough deepening along the coast and combining with moisture in onshore winds producing areas of rain tonight with thunderstorms possible. That will continue through Tuesday before the system moves off and high pressure takes over. The next rainfall opportunities will then shift to the south with a trough approaching this weekend, with showers and thunderstorms developing along a boundary separating the hot and air from the cold. There have been some indications of widespread rainfall developing with a secondary feature building out of cold air and moisture surging north next week but that remains low confidence.
00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The Euro is in good agreement in the short term, warming up with well above average temperatures until Friday, then conditions start to shift in association with the passage of a strong cold front. How the cold front evolves over the state still up in the air, the Euro passes it through slowly over the weekend handing it off to QLD and the NT by early next week with a dry cold airmass but again a low confidence forecast strap applies for now. This forecast will change again during the future runs, so once again, the main takeaway tonight is - warming up with well above average rainfall, patchy rainfall spreading east through the southeast on Friday, heavier rainfall likely for eastern VIC and parts of inland NSW and then showers and storms for inland QLD and southern NT early next week. Much colder air filtering through the southern half of the nation next week leading to below average temperatures.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Higher confidence in the widespread rainfall and thunderstorms over the central and north coast tonight, some areas could clear 50-100mm if the band erupts on the coastal fringe. Beyond that a low confidence forecast in terms of rainfall, as outlined in the video, the rainfall is fully dependent upon the timing of moisture coming in from the northeast and north, the timing of the front and whether a low develops on the front as it passes over SA through the southeast and how the follow up cold air behaves into the weekend over the southeast, does that move north, does it move east? Those questions will ultimately be answered mid week onwards as the system responsible, the cold front, becomes active in real time and the modelling can feed or real data, rather than hypotheticals. Welcome to spring time in Australia in terms of modelling, very poor at times.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days
The main feature for this major rainfall event later in the week is the merging and absorption of moisture from the north and east of the nation, where does that take place and how much moisture survives the journey from WA into SA. These questions will be answered mid week onwards. Follow that a colder drier surge is being progged by most models next week so expect a period of below average temperatures and if the air is indeed dry and stable, severe frosts are possible next week which could pose a problem for crops.
I will have a climate update tomorrow from lunchtime after your morning weather wrap!