QLD - PATCHY RAINFALL DEVELOPING FAR SOUTHERN INLAND. FURTHER RAIN LATER THIS WEEK WITH THUNDER.

OVERVIEW

A dry weekend has been welcome for many with mainly fine skies, little cloudy at times but the weather has been generally very good compared to previous weekends where many have been washed out. A drier airmass over the northwest and northern inland will remain but the coastal areas are seeing an increase in moisture and leading to showery weather and onshore winds.


Over the southern and southwest inland, moisture levels have also increase leading to cloud cover and the chance of rainfall this evening and that could persist into Monday.


During this week, temperatures are forecast to rise in association with a developing northwest flow and that flow will strengthen as well. More widespread cloud is forecast to develop from mid to late week as a jet stream cloud band moves through and leads to rain forming over much of NSW and this could spread over the southern areas of the state with moderate falls on and west of the divide.


SHORT TERM

That will be where we see the rainfall most widespread which is from later this week, but ahead of it, the weather is warming up with the heat engine alive and kicking and this warm air is being transported by the northwesterly winds. To the south, a colder westerly flow will start to lift northwards later this week and as we see the moisture intersect these clashing air masses, large cloud band will develop over the southern inland leading to widespread falls.


The issue is later this week, does the moisture leave the east coast and clear or do we see it linger over the southern and central interior with showers and thunderstorms developing along a weak trough into the weekend? Models are split on this idea, but certainly seeing the moisture and instability values lingering into the weekend which could see further falls unfold. Very spring like pattern.


LONG TERM/AREAS TO WATCH

Once we get this system off the board, does the moisture linger over the southeast and eastern inland or is it transported offshore? That is the question that remains unanswered today and for most of this week, will remain unanswered. Understand that there will be rainfall events coming and going for northern and eastern Australia reflecting the moisture content that is present.


There is uncertainty on the scale of the frontal weather that is passes from west to east and whether the negative SAM remains in place. If we see the negative SAM in place, this will lead to further strong fronts to pass through and the vision of this is not quite clear so expect further changes to the weather pattern and forecast in the coming week as we deal with the active weather in the short term. How the pattern evolves this week will impact the weather that develops in the medium term.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - SUNDAY 31ST JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not a great deal of rainfall is expected over the southern inalnd in the coming days and that is thanks to the forcing with the current rainy system over NSW slipping southeastwards away from QLD. But limited shower activity will feature for Monday for the south and a warm northwest flow will continue. The better rainfall chances in the short term will be found over coastal areas, mainly about the FNQ coast with moderate rainfall totals possible thanks to the easterly winds running over the warm waters of the Coral Sea. That will feed southwards into the jet stream later this week leading to a larger cloud band forming over the state with moderate rainfall developing over southern districts with the chance of thunderstorms. The issue for the forecast later this week into the weekend is does the moisture escape offshore to the east or does it hang back over the interior into the weekend and early next week? It remains an issue of forecast confidence for the outlook period. So remain across the forecasts.

Rainfall is forecast to be more extensive over the southern inland of the state and could extend into Central areas this weekend, but that is determined by whether the trough hangs back with the moisture or if the moisture heads offshore with the trough also heading eastwards. So, rainfall numbers could creep up.

AUGUST 7TH-14TH 2022

Moisture Watch Next Week

The moisture content across the nation is expected to remain in place but there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding impacts and thus, leaving the whole nation under risk is the right call and then we can work back from there throughout the week as the data becomes clearer rather than moving the yellow shading around drastically responding from run to run.

Rainfall Anomalies

Some areas may see lingering rainfall with the southwest of the nation and running along the northern tropics the most likely to see any above average rainfall chances. Some moisture lingering throughout the interior may spit out some patchy rainfall and a few showers in onshore winds for the east coast with a departing long wave is also possible. Seasonal rainfall will continue with frontal weather for the south and southeast.

Temperature Anomalies

The big shift in guidance has been the victory for the cooler air to shove the jet stream further north and dam that warmer air back over the heat engine, but that will break and come south through mid-month. The question will be with the warmer air, does it shift southwards into moisture and then interact with strong cold fronts or troughs again?

DATA - Refer to the weather video to get your latest short- and medium-term breakdown.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video to get your latest short- and medium-term forecast information and to get the context behind the forecasts that are delivered.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture loads for the central and eastern parts of the nation are off the charts quite frankly and will result in very intense rainfall rates for the eastern and southeastern inland and along the Great Dividing Range. A deep moisture supply over the northern and eastern inland of the nation looks to return throughout the medium term and this is an area to watch but will be impacted by the evolution of the system this week so that moisture remains of low confidence. But certainly, some very strong signals for further rainfall exists from mid-month too.

00Z ICON- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 7 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

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00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

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00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

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00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

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A closer look in - rainfall with moderate falls may creep into the southern districts over the coming week but the heaviest rainfall looks to stay in NSW. Rainfall may break out in the medium term further north as moisture deepens in advance of troughing on top of a high passing through VIC, but that remains to be seen.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall for the medium term.

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