And that could be the start of the wet phase for the state as we enter later next week, after what has been a very dry run since early July.
Rainfall Percentages - Month to date
A big burst of rainfall at the start of the month was all that really fell. with not too much in between then and now, though a few showers have drifted through southern inland areas, nowhere near the widespread falls of the start of the month.
The weather should follow the same script for the remainder of the month over most of the state, though there could be some rainfall developing near the NSW border with a trough moving north and a deep moisture supply. The trigger is further south but it could be close enough to produce more widespread cloud and rainfall.
Watch this feature over the weekend as that moisture may deepen later Sunday and bring a rainband through southern and southeast areas later Sunday into Monday.
Next week that band of moisture lifts north with yet another dry colder burst as high pressure moves eastwards, but that high will begin to shift conditions, with a wind turning easterly! The westerly wind belt looks to resolve further south opening the door for more moisture to build up over the eastern inland of the state, possibly signaling the start of a rain event for parts of QLD.
This is the Euro model for next Sunday showing the moisture over QLD and rainfall developing underneath this atmosphere over the northern and central inland.
The GFS also is the same as the Euro which is suggesting inland rainfall chances are increasing for QLD.
Lets look at the latest modelling
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The pressure pattern is largely unchanged over the coming 4 days with moisture sweeping northwest to southeast with the pattern dominated by the long wave coming in from WA. The weather then trends colder through the southeast as the long wave trough passes through and then into the east with a southwest flow developing. All the moisture ahead of the frontal weather will lift into areas of rainfall through inland NSW, VIC and most of coastal SA. We may even see rainfall come into parts of southern QLD which is the first meaningful rainfall since early July. The weather the trends drier mid to late next week with the weather set to be dominated by high pressure. That high will reset the moisture over the nation with easterly winds redeveloping over QLD sending in a moisture plume through the north and central areas, which may continue to track southwest through the eastern inland. This may lift into widespread areas of rain. Out west there will be a separate long wave out west which may produce a widespread rain band if a front can be in phase with that feature. So these will dominate the medium term forecasting.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall largely unchanged for the coming 4-5 days with the weather dominated by those two long waves, but we see rainfall reduce mid next week with a drier period expected this time next week ahead of a milder spell with plenty of sunshine into next weekend. That is when the rainfall moves to parts of QLD and back to WA as high pressure moves the moisture away from the southeast inland, but rainfall likely to come back in the second week of August. Clearly the weather is expected to shift its focus to QLD later in the outlook is what the last few weeks of analysis here has been banging on about, now we just have to wait and see how it verifies.
12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies for the coming 16 days
This product again shows the shift in the conditions after we get through the last of the frontal weather. The nation begins to be dominated by high pressure as it digs into the southern states. The more settled weather expected from Thursday for several days next week. As that happens, the whole pattern resets and we see easterly winds strengthen over the north and east and finally gives the eastern inland a chance to see moisture return, coastal showers return to the east coast, giving the south a chance to dry out. It is looking more likely that a rainfall event may get going over QLD next weekend. Then out west we watch the moisture surging southeast into frontal weather approaching next weekend which may bring a separate rainfall event to the west later next weekend Another rainfall event may develop over the northeast with a deeper moisture plume over much of QLD. That is the second time this model has shown this today for mid month, that event would be more widespread if it verifies.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The pattern largely unchanged from last night with two frontal waves tapping into large amounts of moisture streaming out of the northwest and extending over VIC and NSW, then into QLD this weekend into early next week. Then we see the last of the fronts move through Tuesday with a colder southwest flow redeveloping. The weather will clear under that high pressure system moving in as the westerly winds retreat south. Note the upper trough over us later in the outlook and another long wave building off WA next weekend, these two areas will be the focus of medium term forecasting over the weekend and may provide the next batch of rainfall into the second week of August. Rainfall chances are slowly increasing for the second half of the outlook, especially through next weekend.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall is possible through southern QLD with the a moisture surge coming in from the northwest and linking up with a trough moving north Sunday through Monday, but light falls for now, but this could change. The winds veer into the east during mid to late next week with showery weather developing along parts of the central and northern QLD coast. Then that moisture surging southwest and west to be lifted into areas of light to moderate rainfall with that rainfall shifting southwards through the outlook.
12Z Euro Precipitable Water Values for the next 10 days
The Euro is similar to the GFS with moisture likely to reset under the new high pressure system next week. We can see a good supply of moisture coming in ahead of frontal weather over the southern and eastern states over the coming few days, leading to once again light to moderate follow up rainfall. The northern inland of NSW and southern QLD could surprise during Sunday and Monday as an upper trough deepens with the second system surging northeast bringing a colder southwest shift to the southeast state. In the later part of the next week into the weekend, we can see moisture developing over QLD and WA, where this will be the focus of the medium-term forecasting as two large cloud bands could develop in response to the moisture and troughs combining. Rainfall coverage next weekend is hard to pin down and better clarity will come Sunday night with the forecast packages and during early next week once the long wave over the southeast moves east.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
The model agreement is improving for light areas of rainfall to break out over northern QLD later in the period, otherwise the rainfall totals in the short term may increase in coming forecasts if the moisture deepens further and the tough lifts further north. Modelling is somewhat divergent in rainfall totals but there is a risk of moderate rainfall developing for the southern inland.
More weather details to come including a climate outlook for August.