QLD - NOW THE RAINFALL IS CRANKING UP - SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.

It is an active and unsettled period across much of the state with many areas feeling that today, 20-50mm of rainfall through southern parts of the state and severe thunderstorm warnings are in force.


It is looking wet right through until the end of the weekend at this time. So lets get straight into it. Nothing more to add than soupy wet weather to persist, with heaviest rainfall the further east you go.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Areas of rain with local thunderstorms, scattered heavy falls leading to flash and riverine flooding tonight will move east tomorrow before easing in coverage from Tuesday. An onshore northeast to easterly flow will continue to produce showers along the coast and pump moisture into the first trough which will stand up over the eastern regions of the state, keeping the afternoon storms going for most areas west of the divide as well. A new trough emerging from SA will absorb the first system producing broad instability with widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe, some heavy with flash and riverine flooding. The risk continues into the weekend where an organised batch of rain will move through the state, with again more heavy rainfall totals. Some clearance over western areas is possible during the later part of the weekend into next week but the onshore flow may keep the rain and thunderstorms going.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are expected to continue from overnight and into Monday, contracting east through to the GDR and points east. Storms may turn severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds the main concern. The storms that form will flatten into areas of rain later in the day. The west turns drier with a brief ridge, warm air aloft and stable air.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

Damaging winds may develop with thunderstorms north of the cloud band where the jet stream aloft is still passing through at 30000ft at around 120-130kts. These winds may be mixed down to the surface in the stronger storms.

Flash Flood Risk Monday

Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding is the main concern over the course of tonight and through Monday with storms. But even with heavy areas of thundery rain, non severe storms may even produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

DATA

00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pattern remains dynamic and unstable and volatile for many regions over the coming 10 days. The forecast confidence therefore remains low with such a large amount of moisture, high degree of instability and low pressure also working through the moisture producing thunderstorms, the placement of the worst of the weather is hard to pin down. There is no doubt that the west will see conditions ease with that low pressure system lifting east into SA then into the eastern states, the rainfall and thunderstorms increasing over SA, VIC, NSW and QLD for the second half of this week. Where the confidence falls down is in who gets what and when. So that is going to be the frustrating part for many this week, with headers sitting still and a lot of water coming down in the east and potential for more. The northern tropics also looking unsettled with high levels of moisture and the return of colder air aloft, supporting showers and thunderstorms. There is a high chance that parts of NSW and southern QLD does not evade the moist air through this period meaning a wet start to December is likely. The west remaining hot in persistent easterly winds.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Deep moisture still remains in place for much of this week leading to elevated rainfall chances for many. But once we get into the latter part of this week, SA and VIC should return back into dry air and this will support a few days of dry settled skies with southeast winds. Can the humidity be swept out of NSW and QLD? Not so sure on that, which may pose a problem for those needing dry clearer days of weather. It is not looking as promising in these regions, especially the further north and east you go. WA dries out from Tuesday.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details and to the post after 9pm EDT.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more details and to the post after 9pm EDT.

More on the rainfall after 9pm EDT.


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