QLD - MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND ANOTHER STORM OUTBREAK NEXT WEEK.

Storm season continues to unfold across QLD with a very rough start for much of the state's east. The storms have once again been severe today, but as forecast this morning, the upper trough axis is sitting offshore now and so the coverage of storms not as widespread today. But where they have formed, they are packing a punch. That will be the case tomorrow as well.


Saturday, a bigger batch of storms is expected to roll through with a trough coming in from NSW, there could be severe thunderstorms once again.


A brief break on Sunday with stable air moving through. The tropics however will start to turn a bit more showery with the upper high sitting just to the west of the state over the NT.


Next week the focus will be the storm outbreak during Monday and Tuesday. More details on that below.


Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 days

Thunderstorms dictate who gets rainfall and how much throughout this period, and the main areas to record thunderstorm activity is clearly the southeast, central inland and throughout the tropical north. There may be a widespread batch of heavy showers and storms during Monday and Tuesday with some areas picking up over 50-100mm during this period. Then coastal showers will start to increase with easterly winds freshening from Mackay northwards. Another trough is expected to pass through from NSW and SA later next week which could bring yet another round of showers and thunderstorms. Again your number will vary against what is advertised below, that is how it works during Spring and Summer.

Southeast areas are likely to see further good rainfall opportunities, especially with thunderstorms again next week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Very similar spread of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow as per today. An unstable airmass is in place, the dynamic forcing not as impressive as earlier in the week so this may diminish the severe weather coverage throughout the east. All modes of severe weather are possible, but storms will be more isolated in number.

Large Hail Risk Friday

Large hail is a continued risk during Friday afternoon. The main risk area inland of the coast where the seabreeze converges with the inland west or northwest flow. Storm motion is rather slack, so hail will be mainly inland at this stage.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging outflow winds or microbursts are possible with stronger thunderstorms during the afternoon and inland, once again the greatest risk inland of the coast.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Storms raining themselves out over the one region, quite possible inland of the coast as the storms slowly move about. Some locations could record 50mm of rainfall in one hour tomorrow. Light to moderate rainfall is expected for coastal areas.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pattern again largely unchanged from this morning, which is a good thing in terms of forecasting, however the position, scale and intensity of the elements on the board are the features that determine who gets how hot and how wet in the coming week or so. So the forecast as mentioned in the rainfall forecasts and video, it is a low confidence forecast. For now we have a cold front passing through southeast states during Friday with showers with light falls mainly. Showers and thunderstorms will continue off and on for much of this outlook for northeast NSW and parts of inland QLD. Severe thunderstorms are possible for SE QLD early next week with all modes of severe weather. Next week we watch a sharp upper trough moving through WA and that will bring more of a temperature drop than rainfall. It will help to hook into moisture over the tropics and drag it south and southeastwards towards SA and then the southeast states later next week. Ahead of it, warm to hot for much of southern and eastern Australia before a thundery change works it's way through. How wet that system is, remains to be seen. The weather over the north becoming quite unsettled with a larger scale storm outbreak for the NT and into parts of WA during the course of the next week with above average rainfall, bringing down the horrendous high heat.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Not a lot of change from this morning, but the moisture is now becoming very deep through the outlook period through northern and eastern Australia, with numerous to extensive showers and thunderstorms over much of the NT extending through to QLD and west into WA. This moisture field will remain there until the ridging over the southeast breaks down and you will note that moisture begins to surge south and southeast next week lifting the rainfall chances for the dry southeast and eastern inland. The west seeing relatively seasonal values and the moisture remaining trapped over QLD and northern NSW with a trough meandering west and then east. The moisture over northern Australia is well above average for this time of year and it will visit the southern states into November.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Blotchy rainfall throughout the nation indicates convective rainfall. The western coast looks dry but most areas of the nation should have a shower or thunderstorm risk during the coming 10 days.

A closer look in

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to the video for more - the ensemble data is way more useful - more on that tonight.

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 weeks

Refer to the video for more

More details on the rainfall coming up at 9pm EDT and tomorrow is the Harvest Update for the coming 6 weeks which looks more into November.



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