The wet weather is not too far away with an upper trough over SA starting to lift northeast today and will move into the southwest inland tomorrow afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in response to this feature as we move through the middle of the week with widespread rainfall developing along the coast in response to a deepening surface trough offshore.

Easterly winds feeding the systems with moisture from the warmer waters of the Coral Sea will see the wet weather increase in coverage across the next 3 days.

Some areas could see well above average rainfall once again in the space of 2 days over the inland and over the course of the next 5 days along the coast before the event resolves.

Rainfall Next 10 Days

A lot of what you see here, falls during the coming 5 days as a deep upper trough moves through. Some areas could see well above average rainfall for this time of year which is the traditional driest time of the year. There is also the risk of thunderstorms moving through the southern and central interior with some of the rainfall possibly heavy at times with the potential for flash flooding for some. The rainfall contracts to the coast during Friday as a deeper surface low form offshore. For now, the heaviest and most severe weather is expected to sit offshore the east coast, but it will be close by, so keep watching the trends.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible during early afternoon over the southwest inland and will also develop through to southern and central inland areas where the risk of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, damaging winds and small hail are all possible. The risk extends further northeast overnight into Thursday and clears the central and southern inland.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

The risk is generally low to moderate with this feature moving through during the afternoon and evening, but where a storm forms, they won't be moving fast, some moderate to heavy rainfall with large accumulation of small hail is possible.

Small Hail Risk Wednesday

The risk of hail is low to moderate with the most robust thunderstorms. But given that we are in cool season, large hail is not considered a high risk, but pea sized hail quite possible with the stronger storms.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging winds are possible with the more organised multicellular thunderstorms that form, with outflow winds from the heaviest storms up to 100km/h possible.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over the Central Highlands and Coalfields and extend further east into the Northern Wide Bay and through the Capricornia and torwards the Central QLD coast. Heavy rainfall and large accumulations of small hail is possible with damaging winds a lower risk.

Severe Weather Watch - Mid Week

The overall threat over the period is similar to yesterday but have introduced a low risk for Townsville and that risk nosing into Brisbane with the uncertainty surrounding the low-pressure system forming offshore. Thunderstorms over a broad area inland makes it tricky to forecast who exactly gets slammed, but there will be severe weather lurking out there from tomorrow through Thursday before conditions clear eastwards.

More coming up in the evening update from 5pm EST.

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