QLD - IT IS ALL ABOUT THIS ANOMALOUS RAIN EVENT FROM NEXT WEEK - WHAT IS THE LATEST?

ANALYSIS

The pattern is dry and boring for most areas between now and through to about Sunday. Until then, we have high pressure sitting over the state and this combined with drier air and that sinking air motion will lead to fine skies and low rainfall expectations.


As we move into the weekend and really next week, that is when we start to see that upper level system approach from the south and west and this starts to drag that deeper moisture we can see wafting offshore the northern coastline leading to that widespread rainfall chance beginning across the state.


SHORT TERM

So that system is the one of great interest nationally, but if it does unfold as what has been suggested by the modelling, then many areas, could see well above average rainfall for yet another month. This would also highlight what the remainder of Winter and indeed what Spring could offer us, in terms of widespread rainfall, frequent falls leading to further saturated catchments ahead of the wet season and severe weather season proper as well as many people heading into Harvest.

LONG TERM

There are some indications that the retreating westerly wind belt is forecast to move away southwards, but the northern aspect of that westerly wind belt may throw up further cold air pools and interact with the moisture still lurking over northern Australia which could lead to further areas of rain and thunder for northern and eastern areas of the nation.


Not much love from the Indian Ocean at this time, but the weather will be slow moving in terms of the pressure patterns moving more north to south rather than west to east leading to colder weather over in the east and warmer weather in the west.


AREAS TO WATCH

How much moisture will lurk over the northern parts of the nation following the rain event over the southeast and east next week, as we head into the second week of July. There are indications that upper level cold pools may interact with this deeper moisture leading to those above average rainfall signals to continue.


The weather over the southwest and central parts of the nation could remain settled for quite some time with a dry airmass and high pressure in place.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - WEDNESDAY 22ND JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be very lean through to about later in the weekend if not early next week, so not much rainfall between now and then. Next week though, the position, scale and depth of an upper trough and it's relationship to the moisture surging southwards from the tropics will dictate the coverage of rainfall across the state. Still healthy signs for well above average rainfall stretching from the NT through QLD into NSW from next week, clearing later in the week.

Rainfall is expected to continue throughout the eastern and southeastern inland on onshore winds and the possibility of troughs through much of next week. The ignition point for rainfall is tricky, with some models keeping that back through northern areas back into the NT and shearing it off through Central QLD, other models, about 45% of them, pull the rainfall south. As mentioned, the weather will remain of low confidence for next week, and only increase in confidence, once we see the offending system responsible for the rainfall chances appear in real time and the models input real time data.

Rainfall Next 15 Days

Rainfall may return through the outlook period into the early part of July where we could see widespread rainfall develop in response to easterly winds with deep moisture linking into the developing troughs that are lingering through the eastern inland of the country. Once again, the rainfall signals are strong but it will come down to the placement of the systems as they waft around the region and whether we see moisture in relation to the easterly flow.

The rainfall is set to continue along the coast mainly south of Cairns through the medium term, but the coverage is uncertain, but there are growing indications that the weather will be dominated by easterly winds atop a high pressure system, that could be in response to the SAM tending back positive for a period, but more time needs to be given to see how that unfolds over the coming week.

MEDIUM TERM

June 29th - July 6th, 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are strengthening for the east on models in relation to a positive SAM phase and easterly winds but with troughs and left over rainfall from the short term still lingering throughout the east this will see widespread falls continuing for what is a drier period for the east coast. Seasonal weather most elsewhere, but the blocking high potential, could keep the drier weather chances in place for the SWLD. But the rainfall coming into July may cover the shortfall through this period when the westerly winds return.

Temperature Anomalies

Cooler bias over the central inland of the nation is in response to the southerly flow around a slow moving high. Seasonal weather in the east, though more humid with the higher rainfall potential and cloudy skies. Warmer than normal weather is forecast over the north with higher humidity about.

DATA - Refer to the video further context on all the data sets that you are seeing and get my take on the short- and medium-term breakdown.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details on the latest data sets found via the video and I am putting all the high amplitude pattern and high precipitation into context for you and what you can expect through this period, especially for the east and southeast.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture continues to deepen over the northern parts of the nation and certainly is the most active feature throughout the period, but I want you to cast your eyes to the northwest and north of the nation at the end of the run, the constant recycling of moisture is an element to watch to see whether we see the rainfall frequency increase in the medium to longer term. Note, that this one event that is being forecast, trashes the drier bias for many areas in the climate forecasts that are made via the same models, hence why the short- and medium-term forecasts are important to review daily.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - DO NOT BE SEDUCED BY THIS TYPE OF OUTPUT! REFER TO THE VIDEO AND THE LATER RAINFALL UPDATE TONIGHT FOR FURTHER CONTEXT!!!!! LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTING!!

Rainfall numbers will bounce around from run to run!!

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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