QLD - IT IS ALL ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL

And many of you are forecast to see quite a soaking in the coming week, the highly anomalous weather thanks to La Nina that refuses to pack her stuff up and leave!

This is resulting in significant rainfall potential with the risk of flooding relatively high this week as well as the risk of severe thunderstorms.

As you are well informed, this has been flagged since late April as a risk developing through this time and should not be of surprise.

Now it is a matter of pinning down who exactly gets what and when. That is going to be hard with an upper low in the mix, one of the harder features to forecast well, ahead of time.

So, expectations about highly accurate forecasts here and anywhere else quite frankly need to be mitigated in this environment and caution and preparation for severe weather should be considered a priority moving through the coming days.

Let’s take a look.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The wettest part of the nation is right here in QLD. A significant and highly anomalous rainfall event is likely to unfold with the risk of flooding and severe thunderstorms high in the coming days. Rain is likely to develop over inland areas on Monday with showers increasing along the coast. Local thunderstorms inland and about the coastal ranges could turn severe on Monday. Then Tuesday, areas of rain, moderate to heavy falls and the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms could spread further south and west into the western and southwest border. Areas of rain and thunderstorms continue into Wednesday and Thursday before the rainfall contracts eastwards on Friday as the upper low and trough begin to move eastwards. The rainfall will remain heavy at times over the east coast with some locations likely to see falls over 300mm in this period, possibly as high as 500mm for the period before the weather eases. The weather from the weekend is dry for the interior but still showery along the coast but the severe weather risk will have likely concluded by Saturday with the upper levels stabalising. The severe weather event will dictate weather forecasts nationally for this region and preparations should be made now in areas susceptible to severe flooding.

A closer look at Central Inland QLD where flooding is a risk.

Severe Weather Watch - Tuesday through Friday

The severe weather watch for the week remains largely unchanged with the severe weather threat extended a little further north and west from yesterday, but the idea is the same. Be weather aware, flood aware and keep up to date with the warnings. I will try and break down the information as effectively as possible.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are forecast to form along a trough from the southeast inland and points west extending back to the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Cape York region. The storm risk is not likely over the far southwest and west at this time but that may change into the middle of the week as the upper low deepens about the southwest.

Flash Flood Risk - Tuesday through Friday

Heavy rainfall with local thunderstorms over much of the state will mean that the risk of a flash flooding is broad, though low, with the random nature of thunderstorms across the state meaning pinning down who gets what and when is tricky but watch trends and have access to severe weather updates here. The rainfall will be most widespread and heavy along the coast and adjacent inland ranges from about Cairns south along the coast to near Noosa at this time.

Riverine Flood Risk - Tuesday through Friday

A significant and very high risk of riverine flooding developing between Tuesday and Friday is forecast to emerge along the coast and extend inland to the coastal ranges. Some areas could see significant flooding issues if the upper end rainfall is achieved in quick time. The risk extends way inland but the forecast risk remains low for now.


00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Certainly, very moist air over the eastern inland of the country which dominates the proceedings in terms of rainfall opportunities, drier air can be found closer to the high pressure, but the moisture from the north and northeast will eventually override that dry air so expect to see more cloud and rainfall spread across the country. Out west, more moisture surging in after a drier week with the remains of TC Karim needing to be watched as that could influence rain band potential through the jet stream. The north is enjoying the first proper dry surge, but it does not last that long with a more humid northeast flow developing as we go through the outlook period. The pattern is expected to relax a little mid month as the atmosphere resets and the threat for above average rainfall and higher humidity is still well and truly on the cards for many locations.


00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the rainfall in the region could be classified as dangerous in the coming days as models do not pick up on the acute impacts of the above average SSTs and the convergent zones interacting with the topography, so make sure you stay up to date with the warnings and radar coverage.

More coming up from 8am EST and there is a lot happening in the coming week so make sure you check back in morning and night, and I will have more details for you giving you the very latest on what you need to know.




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