The humid and unsettled weather begins to increase tomorrow with a pair of troughs draped across the nation. One trough over the NT and SA producing showers and storms which will approach the west and southwest later tomorrow night. Another trough over the southeast also bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the coastal and southeast inland.
The showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase this weekend with troughs merging over the eastern parts of the nation, in combination with a deeper northeast flow. The showers and thunderstorms turning more widespread state wide, with heavy falls of rainfall likely each afternoon and evening if you get under a thunderstorm.
The storms stick around next week and there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms turning even more widespread ahead of a larger scale low pressure system emerging out of SA.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to dominate the rainfall distribution throughout the period with waves of low pressure passing through from the west and hanging up over QLD and NSW with periods of heavier and more widespread rainfall from time to time. The rainfall could become more heavy throughout Monday over southern and eastern areas with a strong trough. Another deep upper trough will move in from the west during mid next week and that could produce significant rainfall and thunderstorm activity across the state with all modes of severe weather possible along with the risk of more widespread riverine flooding developing.
Thunderstorm Forecast Friday
Thunderstorms are expected to fire over southern and central interior parts of the state during the afternoon and evening near a trough that is stalled out over southern QLD through NSW and into northern VIC. Another trough will fire off storms over the NT and spread the storm activity towards the western districts tomorrow night. Storms may be heavy and gusty over southern inland areas of the state.
Flash Flood Risk Friday
High levels of atmospheric moisture is expected to lead to absolute dumpers tomorrow, so thunderstorms will be very productive with flash flooding a high risk. The remainder of the the shaded thunderstorm are seeing the garden variety thunderstorm activity for now.
Damaging Winds Risk Friday
Damaging wind gusts are expected to develop with the stronger and organised clusters of thunderstorms throughout the southern inland with the risk with the higher precipitation thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and the evening.
DATA - Using GFS tonight as many of you will look heavily at the Euro - this is the drier option on the table. More information on the GFS data in the video and you can catch up with the model comparison coming up at 9pm tonight for your region.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
This pattern would be a better outcome for farmers over VIC, SA and NSW with a drier look and a chance to dry out for eastern farmers to get in and get some work done through the harvest but it is an outlier against other data sets. If the upper level system from the south comes over VIC and TAS, it may disrupt the moisture coming in from the north this time next week, and keep it through QLD. But time will tell.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
This is the driest model for the 2 week period and I will have more details on this later tonight with the full model spread.
A closer look in - some record rainfall totals there for November for outback areas.
More details on all things rain and moisture coming up at 9pm tonight.