QLD - HOW ABOUT A BIG BAG OF NOTHING RAIN WISE AND A WEEK OR SO OF SUNSHINE!!

OVERVIEW

Back to more routine weather for the northern states as we see a drier airmass and upper high sit over the region leading to westerly winds and settled skies. Welcome news for many areas after a week of wet weather and above average rainfall.


The biggest feature this week, the below average temperatures, with the risk of frost returning over the inland with the clear skies and light winds the perfect recipe for the classic QLD winter weather that you all love.


SHORT TERM

With the flow pattern shifting into the west and northwest over the coming week through Southern Australia, this will bump the ridging over the state and keep us settled. On top of the high, the trades will likely bring a few showers and onshore winds into Cape York and FNQ.


Rainfall totals generally across the state negligible for the coming 10 days.


LONG TERM

We have seen some evidence in the past 24hrs that the cold fronts over southern Australia could become a little more influential and move northwards. That may see an uptick in the showery windy weather from southern WA and into southern SA and through to the southeast inland of the nation.


Dry weather may continue through two weeks but there may be another increase of moisture over northern and northwest of the nation, with a jet stream starting to move through the interior, we may start to see rainfall chances developing from about the 21st over inland areas and a lot of cloud returning.


The northern tropics may also start to see an increase of moisture and humidity as we move to the end of the month.


These areas are the engine rooms for widespread rainfall to return across the country.


AREAS TO WATCH

The moisture building throughout the nation’s north and northwest in the medium term


The strength of cold fronts passing throughout the southwest and southern parts of the nation through the short and medium term, with a chance the SAM may move away from the positive phase it has been in. If we can get a negative SAM phase underway as the moisture builds over northern Australia, then we could see more heightened rainfall developing throughout the nation to finish the month.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 7TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

A big bag of nothing as mentioned, maybe some light falls over the coastal areas, tending moderate over Eastern Cape York and FNQ. Some chance that the rainfall may return in the medium term as we see moisture levels increase over northern and northwestern areas of the nation. This may sit in waiting for the upper troughs and low pressure to return which would then tap into this deeper moisture.

Drier weather over the areas hit hard by heavy rainfall over recent days with the bulk of the wet weather this weekend staying in NSW at this time.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

July 14th-21st 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Not much change from yesterday with this a period of benign weather generally across the nation. There is a deeper moisture profile building throughout the period from the 21st-29th of July which may see rainfall increasing over the nation as a whole and that may continue into August as well.

Temperature Anomalies

Cooler than normal conditions appear to feature over northern Australia with the recovery from the colder weather of the past week still taking it's sweet time through the end of this period. There may be cloud forming as moisture deepens from northern and western Australia which could hamper the warming phase so that will be an element to watch if you are living through these areas. Warmer weather possibly in the west with a northwest flow as frontal weather continues to move through the SWLD during this period.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the weather video for more information and context to understand the volatility from run to run and how that will play out in the next week as we navigate towards the next big weather maker.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture content is forecast to decrease over the east as a drier southerly flow develops on the western flank of a trough and low pressure complex offshore in the Tasman Sea. This is expected to help dry out the eastern interior and as the flow turns more southwesterly then westerly next week, a prolonged dry spell will redevelop. The strong dry bias over the western parts of the country will continue to mix out as we see the rainfall and frontal weather redevelop over the southwest of the country. The moisture is forecast to move through the jet stream from next week and impact the southern parts of the nation primarily and the dry signal will continue over the remainder of the central and northern areas. At the end of the run, there is a lot more moisture working through the atmosphere north and west of the nation and will lower air pressure available, we could see the rainfall chances pick up from the 20th of the month onwards, regardless of it being bone dry at the moment on the charts. Refer to the members only facebook page for more details on this as well.


00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - a big bag of nothing as it should be for the driest months of the year.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.



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