The weather overall is very dry and settled for inland areas under a large scale upper ridge that is setting up camp over the interior of the country. For now we are seeing a period of below average rainfall and above average temperatures for inland areas.

Along the coast, rainfall is set to return this weekend, but once again below average totals with a lack of instability and support for widespread rainfall.

That trend also runs up to the tropics through the weekend, but next week, rainfall may begin to increase as the trade winds freshen north of Mackay leading to more persistent showers and cooler conditions.

A stronger trough may approach the southwest and south of the state later next week or into the following weekend.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains light and patchy along the southern 2/3rds of the coast, but may accumulate to about 25mm through the period. The heavier falls in the state and across the nation will be found over the northern tropics with onshore southeast to easterly winds freshening persisting from the deep Coral Sea. Rainfall may exceed 200-300mm in some areas facing east. Otherwise try and find the showers and storms inland, very hard. The weather dry for most centres with above average temperatures.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms may return to the northern tropics during the afternoon and evening, but it will continue to be below average coverage resulting in below average rainfall. The air may feel unchanged but the upper pattern is more stable, stifling the ability for thunderstorms to return to normal levels. There may be a creeper thunderstorm drift in from northern NSW later in the day into the Southern Downs/Granite Belt but this is likely to be a non event.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information where I will use the CMC model data again this evening

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern is largely unchanged again on the GFS which is good for forecasting consistency. Still looking at a relatively quiet week nationally with the wet weather over the north and east, below average for this time of year. Dry weather for another 7 days for southern Australia with heat levels on the rise with upper ridging and surface high pressure close by keeping things quiet. A deeper trough over in the west of the nation will remain in the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue, more likely over the Pilbara and the Outback at this stage. The tropical weather very quiet and still eyeing off a 1/30 year dry spell for February if it does verify. Things may start to shift as the SAM turns neutral and then positive towards the end of the month introducing more opportunities over the eastern parts of NSW and QLD. Also the MJO may be moving into phase near Australia bringing wetter weather at the end of the month into March, which could improve rainfall chances nationally.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The lack of moisture is in response to the negative SAM phase over the Southern Ocean which is lifting the drier westerly winds towards the continent. The weather over much of southern and eastern Australia therefore under stable and dry influence. The north of the nation also impacted by the dry air through the interior and east with below average rainfall to continue and that is also in part with the MJO out of phase sitting over the Indian Ocean. The area seeing above average moisture levels are over northwest Australia.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - rainfall coverage is increasing for coastal areas in the medium term as the SAM returns to neutral and then back to positive values - which will lead to easterly winds redeveloping and rainfall/humidity coming back. But inland areas could well be dry for the next 2 weeks. We will see.

More weather coming up from 8am EDT. A nice quiet period is not uncommon through February even in La Nina years, so make the most of it for those of you on the land.

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